Muhammad Ali and the Invisible Punch.

[H2O Man]

17. Good questions.

I'll start with the first, and will get to the second later. I'm just taking a brief break from writing about the Liston vs Ali era, partly on the pure boxing aspects, partly in the cultural context. My previous breaks in the past 48 hours have been spent watching films of the first two Wilder vs Fury fights, and current films of them in training for this one.

I have great respect for both men as boxers and human beings. I used to communicate with Tyson when he was a young, relatively unknown professional. I immediately liked him, and recognized that this kid would have no trouble in promoting himself. I've watched Wilder throughout his career, find him easy to like, but I think he is one of the worst publicly promoted fighters I've ever seen. Early on, though inexperienced, he showed the potential to be a complete fighter.

Deontay used to throw a jab that snapped like a bull whip. It helped him to remain balanced and deliver his explosive right hand. As long as he remained focused, he had skills that although they required development, showed progress. There were, of course, plenty of times he went off balance, often throwing windmill punches, and still flattening opponents. When he fought Stiverne the first time, and hurt his right shoulder, he primarily used that left hand to win the decision. And Stiverne was a tough, talented opponent. But since that 2015 win, his ring skills haven't improved greatly.

Part of this is, in my opinion, because of his public promotions. The focus was almost exclusively on that dynamic right cross. It can be hard for a successful young champion to not believe his good press. I've heard he became head-strong in training, perhaps explaining why Mark Breland cut back to only doing two weeks of "finishing" training in recent years. Breland was a heck of a fighter, and understood all the benefits od being a tall, thin boxer. Now, Wilder's toughness and pure athletic ability was on full display in his two fights with Luis Ortiz. It seemed evident that Anthony Joshua was not interested in fighting him at that time, so Wilder decided to fight Fury.

Despite the knockdowns, I thought Fury won the first fight. But I respect the opinions of those who thought otherwise. Going into the re-match, Fury had switched to hiring the late Manny Stewart's top aide in training camps, to prepare to use his size to his advantage in the second fight. That would prove, of course, very important. Wilder seemed to concentrate on that right cross in training -- it had, after all, almost ended the first bout in the last round. But there was a concern that he wasn't adding to it. Considering how many rights he missed in the first fight, I think it's fair to say he needed the fast, hard jab to set everything else up ..... for one of the best techniques against an opponent who moves his head is to stabilize him with a jab to the upper chest -- a much larger target. But Deontay would only have Mark for his last two weeks of training.

Fury obviously won in impressive fashion. But in large part, this was -- in my opinion -- because when he decked Wilder the first time, in the second round, that punch to the ear popped Deontay's left eardrum. Thus, Wilder showed little to no balance. This was distinct from losing balance going forward with the big right hand. Instead, he was not steady in attempts to move away to the side. Worse, he began pulling his head back from Fury's punches, which alone isn't a good tactic for anyone but Ali. Fury was knocking him off-balance, even when his punches didn't land cleanly, or when he simply bumped into him. Without the ruptured eardrum, the fight would have been different, though Fury seemed prepared to win.

I was among the first to tell Tim Witherspoon that he should consider training Deontay after that fight. Tim knows the sport very well, is easy to get along with, but wouldn't allow Wilder to dictate his own training routine. He's a serious man. But Wilder opted for Scott, a good trainer, but who appears to lack the authority in the gym to fully run the camp. I do see him working on basic essentials, such as the jab, proper footwork, left hooks to the body, and spinning out to the side after throwing a combination. Wilder needs all of those tools to win. However, I have concerns. The jab is too frequently from a semi-squared up stance, which makes it slower, shorter, and with less snal than from a bladed stance. No double-jabs mixed in. And he almost exclusively spins out to his right, without the cover of a jab. All of these skills are what sets up that big right hand -- as would spinning out to his left and throwing the right.

Concerning Fury, I think it is hard to beat a skilled opponent three times in a row in any sport. Since their first fight was declared a draw, this isn't a "rubber match" to motivate him. Yet, all reports are that he respects Wilder's outrageous power, and is training hard for a siddicult fight. More, he knows that within 24 hours of the second bout, instead of speaking about the ear injury, Wilder began making excuses similar to Big George Foreman after Ali beat him. Both would at times express paranoid thoughts about being betrayed by their handlers. (The #1 reason I wanted Tim to train him.) So Fury is confident that he is stronger mentally, although no one understands an emotional breakdown better and Fury. (His, of course, followed his winning the title. Distinct, but all too similar, to losing stability after a first loss.)

In these cases, I often study how each man responds after being hurt in a fight. Both men have shown the ability to respond well in previous fights. Even in their second fight, Wilder proved himself to be tough by continueing as long as he did, and protesting when the fight was stopped. He wanted to go on, hoping Fury would tire from the pace, and he could deliver that big right. Thus, the only issue regarding fighting when hurt is that most fighters resort to earlier, unskilled tactics, almost like one expects an amateur to use in their first three or four fights. This would tend to favor Fury.

Anyone as big as these two hits hard enough to knock an opponent unconscious. Still, this clearly favors Wilder. His build is that of a heavyweight version of Tommy Hearns. He has the physical gifts to develop a Bob Foster-like left hook. Fury has surprising movement for a giant heavyweight, and knows not to load up on every shot. Not only is that tiring, but it can be easier to anticipate. Fury took advantage of that in both of their fights.

This is one of those few fights where I don't want either guy to lose -- though a draw would hardly be satisfying. I make cases for each winning in my head, as well as how each is at risk of losing. It seems like a fairly close fight on paper, maybe 51 to 49 for Fury. Or for Wilder. Let's hope for a good, clean fight -- no intentional fouls, no cuts from butts -- with a clear winner. And hopefully I have not put you to sleep with my long-winded response! Enjoy the fight!