Shoot from the hip diplomacy. A tangled mess.

[usonian]

FT: https://archive.ph/rdUfO
Trump is sowing the seeds of an anti-American alliance

The collapse of western unity would be a dream come true for Russia and China. Trump himself may not care; he has often expressed his admiration for Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. But Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz — the men Trump has appointed as secretary of state and national security adviser — both claim to believe that containing Chinese power is the central strategic challenge facing the US.

If that is the case, it is profoundly stupid for Trump to impose tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico (although the Mexicans may have negotiated a one-month stay of execution). In so doing, he risks creating a convergence of interest between these three countries — as well as the EU, which has been told it is next in line for the tariff treatment.

When the Biden administration took office in 2021, the EU was poised to push through a new investment agreement with China. But that was abandoned after pressure from Washington and blunders by Beijing. By the end of the Biden period, the US and the European Commission were working closely together on efforts to “de-risk” trade with China and to restrict exports of key technology.

The Biden administration’s key insight was that, if the US is engaged in a global contest with China, it is much more likely to prevail if it can persuade the other advanced democracies to work alongside it. Trump, by contrast, has decided to go after America’s allies much more vigorously than its adversaries. The likely consequence is that he will drive those allies back towards China.

It gets tangled-er. Chances of unintended consequences are, IMO, about 200%.