The AI boom is over -- here's your bubble survival guide

[bucolic_frolic]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-boom-over-bubble-survival-113100533.html

The debate shouldn’t be whether the AI bubble will pop — that’s already happening. Not in some dramatic, market-crushing way that will dominate headlines, but through a slow-motion deflation that’s quietly reshaping the entire landscape. The casualties are already piling up: startup shutdowns surged in 2024; in 2025, 95% of enterprise AI pilots failed to deliver measurable P&L impact within six months of launch; and down rounds this year hit a decade high at 15.9% of all venture deals.

Many companies that scream the loudest about the bubble are either exaggerating the threat or fundamentally misunderstanding what’s actually unfolding. This isn’t the 2000 dot-com collapse all over again. It’s far more interesting and far more profitable if you know where to look. I’ve identified three distinct market tiers facing radically different fates:

Tier 1: The hyperscalers (Microsoft MSFT, Alphabet GOOGL GOOG, Amazon.com AMZN, Meta Platforms META, Apple AAPL) are essentially unassailable. Their estimated $320 billion to $340 billion in 2025 capex spending — largely for AI and cloud infrastructure — comes from operating cash flow generated by their core businesses. They can weather extended periods of disappointing AI returns because their core businesses print money.
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MUCH more at the link, this is a very deep dive into AI and the sectors that feed AI, and even gets involved in the timing for '26 & '27.