Last edited Thu Mar 20, 2025, 11:50 AM - Edit history (1)
Just for some context, it doesn't answer your question, but I see some excellent answers up-thread. Election day was Nov 5 and inauguration day was January 20. And rolling 3 month averages, and month-by-month increases to show trends better in recent inflation. They show prices rising since July.
Latest LBN CPI thread (March 12) https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143416133
News report from the source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CORE CPI data series: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
I annualize everything to be comparable to each other and to compare to the Fed's 2% target
They are calculated using the actual index values, not from the rounded off monthly change numbers.
The CPI rise averaged 4.3% over the past 3 months on an annualized basis (core CPI: 3.6%)
The February one month increase annualized is: CPI: 2.6%, CORE CPI: 2.8%
REGULAR CPI
CORE CPI = CPI less food and energy
12 month rolling averages (YOY)
One reason for the decline in the 12 month average aka year-over-year is that the big February 2024 increases dropped out of the 12 month window.
CPI increase in February 2024: 0.40% (4.86% annualized)
Core CPI increase in February 2024: 0.37% (4.54% annualized)
The number dropping out of the 12 month window is just as important as the one entering the 12 month window.
If the incoming number is lower than the outgoing number, then the 12 month average drops, plain and simple. (Similarly with any n-month rolling average).
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