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Bernardo de La Paz

(53,951 posts)
9. "When did the stock market NOT recover from a dip or dive"
Thu Mar 13, 2025, 07:19 PM
Mar 13

... and go on to new highs?

The 1929 drop was not fully recovered until the 1950s and if you account for inflation (tiny then) it was not until some time after 1960 that it recovered.

Staying invested while waiting out a big bear market can be a poor strategy. Timing the market is more productive, but very difficult. However, if one's hopes are adjusted to being satisfied with 60-70% of a rise of a stock, leaving 40 to 30 % on the table because timing is difficult, then it can be productive. Likewise, if one can avoid 60-70% of a bear market, that's great. Together it's more than enough to beat buy and hold.

Back in ancient times when I used to trade stocks before stopping for decades, I had a small holding of a few stocks. I put stops under them and went away on vacation for a couple of weeks. When I came back, most of them had gotten stopped out. I was fine with that. Then a few weeks later the market suffered a big bear drop but I was mostly out. My stops had protected me from a big loss. My study confirms that stops are a good idea, and that timing the market, partly through use of stops is great.

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Sorry, but this is the hogwash that wall street analysts have been spewing on the financial networks, along with this is JohnSJ Mar 13 #1
Could be. We might have to wait 4 or more years until we have a sane administration progree Mar 13 #4
Read the OP again. It does NOT call it only a correction. Easy for you to knock down the straw man you set up. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Mar 13 #6
I was NOT criticizing the OP, I was criticizing the analysts on the financial outlets pushing this as a normal JohnSJ Mar 13 #8
Cool, I'm fine with that. . . . .nt Bernardo de La Paz Mar 13 #10
I didn't word things right Bernardo. Thanks. JohnSJ Mar 13 #11
I may not have read as well as I usually do. No worries, you clarified and we understand each other. Thanks. .nt Bernardo de La Paz Mar 13 #12
the market is just a ponzi scheme run by the tRump crime family inside trades on tRump manipulating news. nt ImNotGod Mar 13 #2
No. That simplistic theory might satisfy inner rage, but it would lead to big money mistakes. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Mar 13 #7
All time highs last fall, tariff wars, political uncertainty, layoffs/budget cuts bucolic_frolic Mar 13 #3
Don't start buying based on an arbitrary figure. Use the charts Bernardo de La Paz Mar 13 #5
"When did the stock market NOT recover from a dip or dive" Bernardo de La Paz Mar 13 #9
One clarification - I don't do individual stocks. I'll be over-allocating with a broad-based fund like a U.S. total progree Mar 13 #13
Some numbers on corrections/bear markets in this video ... cliffside Mar 13 #14
It will be a while before I look at it because I'm way behind on my taxes, but quite possibly I might get motivated progree Mar 14 #16
Lol, me too on the tax front! Generally they are long videos and I do not always understand everything ... cliffside Mar 14 #17
Let's see if we bounce from here and whether or not it lasts ... cliffside Mar 13 #15
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