U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%

[Wiz Imp]

42. Good Point. And those smaller sample sizes or lower response rates will certainly impact some BLS surveys.

The CPI data has already been impacted.

However, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey which produces the jobs numbers, has not had their sample reduced. Response rates have dropped very slightly this year compared to 2024.

Date CES Response Rate
Jan-24 42.6
Feb-24 43.4
Mar-24 43.5
Apr-24 43.0
May-24 43.1
Jun-24 43.0
Jul-24 43.0
Aug-24 43.1
Sep-24 43.0
Oct-24 42.6
Nov-24 43.0
Dec-24 43.0
Jan-25 42.2
Feb-25 42.4
Mar-25 42.6
Apr-25 N/A

The Current Population Survey (CPS) which produces the unemployment rates has had some recent changes: See Here: https://www.bls.gov/cps/methods/sample_redesign_2025.htm

Phased introduction of redesigned CPS sample began with the release of April 2025 estimates on May 2, 2025
In accordance with usual practice, the sample for the Current Population Survey (CPS) has been redesigned based on information from the 2020 Census. The introduction of the new CPS sample began in April 2025 and will be completed in July 2026.

The 2025 sample redesign is expected to have a negligible effect on published estimates.

https://www.bls.gov/cps/notices/2025/2025-sample-redesign.htm

CPS response rates have been falling for years:



https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU09300000&years_option=all_years