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Wiz Imp

(6,197 posts)
14. Correct. Having worked on the Current Employment Statistics program for close to 35 years,
Fri May 2, 2025, 10:16 AM
May 2

i can say that the jobs numbers for the entire history of the program (like 85 years) until now have always been 100% honest. There has never been any political influence causing BLS to manipulate the numbers.

That said, it is understandable why people are concerned that may finally change with this administration. However, there is absolutely ZERO evidence of any data manipulation by BLS to this point. All evidence points to the data still being honest. To be clear, the numbers are not nearly as good as they may first appear. March job totals were revised downward by 43000 and February by 15000 for a total of 58000 fewer jobs than previously reported. If you remove those from the reported April gains, you find that the April Number is only 119,000 above the previously reported March level. That is in fact below projections.

Now there is one part of this jobs report that I do believe is highly questionable. Federal Government jobs were down very slightly and are only down a total of 26000 since January. The administration has made a big deal out of cutting hundreds of thousands of Federal jobs. So why aren't they showing up in the total jobs numbers yet? Having experience with how the Government reports their jobs for this survey program, a slight delay in them showing up in the jobs report is believable. However, I would expect a significantly larger drop to have been reported by now. The Federal jobs numbers are reported to BLS by OPM. Is it possible OPM is purposely delaying showing the drop in Federal employment to BLS? I have no proof that is happening, but there is definite reason for suspicion.

Recommendations

2 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Will this make it less likely the Fed lowers interest? OrlandoDem2 May 2 #1
We won't really see that much of an effect economically BumRushDaShow May 2 #4
Yes, the expected # of rate cuts this year has declined mathematic May 2 #20
Anyone but me question the validity of any numbers coming out of the ShitStains administration? NoMoreRepugs May 2 #2
I was going to ask the same question gab13by13 May 2 #3
I posted this in another thread but it's relevant here too. yardwork May 2 #6
I'd say they are real,temps warming up seasonal hiring is going again. Bengus81 May 2 #18
The reported numbers (177,000 payroll jobs, 4.2% unemployment rate) are seasonally adjusted progree May 2 #21
That was my immediate thought. yardwork May 2 #5
Why not? Republicans always said Biden manipulated the data. Self Esteem May 2 #7
Yes there is dirtrust in govt. accounting now more than ever which is part of the repuke plan BUT Cheezoholic May 2 #12
Distrust in this government is warranted and necessary. gab13by13 May 2 #16
I think that's what I said, giving reasons why. Sorry if i wasn't clear ;) n/t Cheezoholic May 2 #17
BLS is still independent Johnny2X2X May 2 #11
Correct. Having worked on the Current Employment Statistics program for close to 35 years, Wiz Imp May 2 #14
Trump willblame them on Biden when they turn bad Johnny2X2X May 2 #15
Many federal workers no longer reporting to work are on mahatmakanejeeves May 2 #25
There are several problems with that. First, staff on admin leave still get paid so they haven't actually been fired. Wiz Imp May 2 #29
Fork in the Road, Part 2 mahatmakanejeeves May 2 #30
In my Rebl2 May 2 #19
first thing that popped into my head rurallib May 2 #28
i dont trust any data coming from this admin Fullduplexxx May 2 #31
Sincerely angrychair May 2 #8
See post #7 MichMan May 2 #9
LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs. Also, downward revisions of prior 2 months make it a gain of 119k progree May 2 #10
Those are good numbers considering FredGarvin May 2 #13
The Headline Number Is Better Than Expected, However DallasNE May 2 #22
Thanks. I'll have to add that to the calendar. NT mahatmakanejeeves May 2 #26
Wouldn't that be the BIDEN payroll growth? Grins May 2 #23
Enjoy it while you can. louis-t May 2 #24
Long-term unemployed 27 weeks or longer as a percent of total unemployed progree May 2 #27
'The Golden Age is here': US Labor Secy. reacts to April jobs data, 5/2/25 progree May 3 #32
That would have been a "disastrous" number during the Biden administration Orrex May 3 #33
Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»U.S. payroll growth total...»Reply #14