Nature: Earth's average 2023 temperature is now likely to reach 1.5 C of warming

[NNadir]

A news item in the scientific journal Nature:

Earth’s average 2023 temperature is now likely to reach 1.5 °C of warming

Subtitle:

But to breach the Paris agreement’s limit, the heating must be sustained for many years.

I'm not sure if it's open access, so here's some text from the news item:

Earth is hurtling towards its average temperature rising by 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. One climate model suggests that the likelihood of reaching that threshold in 2023 is now 55%.

The 1.5 °C figure was a preferred maximum warming limit set by the United Nations in the landmark 2015 Paris agreement on climate change. Climate scientists use different models to make predictions. Breaching the Paris limit requires a long-term trend of warming of 1.5 °C or more, but some research groups tracking average annual temperatures in isolation are already predicting 1.5 °C of warming this year. In May, a World Meteorological Organization report said that there was a 66% chance that the average annual temperature would breach 1.5 °C of warming between 2023 and 2027.

In its August 2023 monthly update, Berkeley Earth — a non-profit climate-monitoring organization — has put the chance of 2023 being on average 1.5 °C warmer at 55%. This is up from a chance of less than 1% predicted by the team before the start of the year, and the 20% chance estimated using July’s figures. “So this year has played out in a very unusual fashion,” says Robert Rohde, Berkeley Earth’s lead scientist in Zurich, Switzerland.

“I will admit to being surprised,” says Rohde. “I was surprised at how warm August came in...”

A graphic:



History will not forgive us, nor should it.

[Mickju]

1. I am not surprised at all.