Foreign Affairs

TexasTowelie

(119,847 posts) Wed Feb 12, 2025, 10:48 PM Feb 12

12 Feb: Not So Fast! Russian Forces Suffer Disastrous Defeat! - Reporting from Ukraine

Today, there is interesting news from the Kursk direction.

Here, following recent Ukrainian advances in the Kursk region, Russian forces have launched a hurried counteroffensive near Cherkasskoye Konopelka, aiming to halt Ukraine’s progress and quickly retake lost territory. However, with Ukrainians carefully planning their defense, Russians might already be too late, as this Russian mechanized assault quickly turned into another disaster.

Russia’s goal is to avoid a prolonged battle by launching a quick counterattack to overwhelm Ukrainian defenders, forcing them to withdraw before they can establish entrenched defensive positions. The Russians are in a race against time because if they allow Ukrainian forces to dig in along the Psel River, future Russian attempts to retake this ground will become increasingly difficult and costly. Well-prepared Ukrainian defenses, fortified positions, and better supply routes could turn the battle into a long, attritional fight, something that has already caused a lot of problems for Russian forces in the Kursk region, and Russian commanders know they do not have the spare resources for any more additional grinding battles. This is why they rushed their counterattack almost panicky, hoping to catch Ukrainian forces before they could fully consolidate their gains.

To achieve this, Russian forces deployed armored vehicles carrying assault infantry, hoping to rapidly close the distance and engage Ukrainian defenders in close-range combat before drones or artillery could react. The frozen ground, created by subzero temperatures, provided an opportunity as it allowed Russian mechanized units to use field roads, giving them relative freedom of movement compared to previous muddy conditions. Additionally, the frozen terrain made it harder for Ukrainian forces to prepare defensive positions quickly, potentially exposing them to rapid Russian breakthroughs.

Despite these advantages, the battlefield itself worked against the Russian assault. The Konopelka River created a natural funnel, forcing Russian vehicles and troops into predictable movement corridors that Ukrainian drones and artillery easily monitored. Furthermore, while the Ukrainians are now positioned further from Sudzha, they enjoy concealed supply lines stretching from Sudzha to Zamoste, Makhnovka, and through the forest roads leading to Cherkasskoye Konopelka. This allows Ukrainian reinforcements and supplies to move safely and efficiently, hidden from Russian fiber optic drone strikes, while Russian supply lines remain exposed to potential ambushes.

Moreover, ongoing battles near Ulanok prevent Russian forces from using their preferred supply route, forcing them to take longer and more vulnerable paths to reach the battlefield. With the flat, open terrain and clear weather, this logistical disadvantage made Russian movements highly visible to Ukrainian surveillance drones.

Because of these factors, the Ukrainians immediately detected the Russian assault the moment it entered the funnel. Within minutes, Ukrainian drone operators launched waves of FPV drones at the advancing armored column.

Geolocated footage shows Russian armored vehicles being hit by precise FPV strikes, with the lead vehicle exploding and blocking the road behind it. As soon as the infantry dismounted, they attempted to flee into a nearby tree line, hoping for cover. However, since it is winter, the trees provide no actual cover or concealment, leaving them completely exposed as if in an open field.

Ukrainian soldiers immediately called in artillery, with a single cluster munition strike from an artillery crew being enough to wipe out many of the bunched-up Russian soldiers. Vampire drones then successfully finished off the remaining Russian infantry, long before they could reach Ukrainian positions or cause bigger problems. This quick Ukrainian response turned this counterattack into a disaster for the Russians, whose rushed assault, predictable attack routes, and lack of surprise played directly into Ukrainian hands, leading to severe losses in both manpower and armored vehicles.

Overall, while the Ukrainians took this ground with relatively minimal effort, the Russians are now forced into reckless and costly attacks to take it back, which was the main Ukrainian goal of the operation and something that only weakens the already overstretched Russian forces in Kursk. As this pattern will indeed repeat in the coming days, Russian forces will continue to bleed resources and troops in ineffective attempts to reclaim lost ground. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces will aim to maintain stability along the frontline, ensuring that each Russian assault only further depletes their combat capabilities in the region, safeguarding Ukrainian gains in Kursk.