Central Chile's Mediteranean Forests In Trouble; Drought, Fire And Warming Threaten 40% w. Near-Term Collapse
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A study published Feb. 10 in the journal Science of the Total Environment estimates the level of risk faced by all individual sclerophyll forest stands, in the central and coastal zones of Chile, often at altitudes from 4,500 to 7,200 feet. “This is the most detailed risk analysis for this type of forest that has been done,” said Alaniz, the paper’s corresponding author.
The study found dire conditions, using a novel approach that integrates 17 variables related to climate and land-use change, including temperature, urban cover and wildfire frequency. “We developed a new methodology that gathers geospatial information, mainly satellite data, enabling the analysis of big data time series,” explains Alaniz, whose research was supported by Chile’s National Fund for Scientific and Technological Development. Together, these variables are used to calculate a comprehensive index of risk.
The results are stark. Nearly 40 percent of forest stands are currently at high or very high risk of collapse—a term ecologists employ to describe the severe disruption and radical transformation of ecosystems. Furthermore, over 90 percent of the stands are showing decreased physical health and resistance to environmental stressors. More than 85 percent are also producing less biomass through photosynthesis than before.
Together, these findings demonstrate that the forest is now less capable of supporting biodiversity, storing carbon and recovering from natural disasters, said Juan Ovalle, an assistant professor at the University of Chile’s Faculty of Forest Sciences and Nature Conservation. “Dr. Alaniz’s work is valuable and reaffirms a process of forest decline that has accelerated with the intense droughts that have occurred in the last 15 years in central Chile,” he said.
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https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25022025/chile-deforestation-drought-worries-scientists/