University of Arizona: Ice age clues point to more extreme weather patterns in our future

[OKIsItJustMe]

https://news.arizona.edu/news/ice-age-clues-point-more-extreme-weather-patterns-our-future

Ice age clues point to more extreme weather patterns in our future
By Niranjana Rajalakshmi, University Communications

The last ice age peaked around 20,000 years ago and was marked by extensive glaciation and dramatic climate shifts that reshaped Earth's oceans, landscapes and ecosystems. A new study led by the University of Arizona suggests that Earth's last ice age may provide crucial insights into future El Niño weather events. El Niño is one of the most influential climate patterns affecting global weather.

The study, published in Nature, combines data from ancient shells of marine organisms with advanced climate modeling to shed light on how El Niño patterns might change in a warming world.

…

The study found that El Niño variability was significantly lower during the Last Glacial Maximum compared to the present day, and that future extreme El Niño events could become more prevalent as the planet warms. This could lead to more intense and frequent weather disruptions worldwide. Importantly, these findings suggest a common mechanism of extreme El Niño variations under both ice age and future conditions, allowing the researchers to validate the climate model's prediction.

"This gives us more confidence in the model's projections for the future," Thirumalai said. "If it can accurately simulate past climate changes, it's more likely to give us reliable predictions about future changes in the El Niño system."

…

Thirumalai, K., DiNezio, P.N., Partin, J.W. et al. Future increase in extreme El Niño supported by past glacial changes. Nature (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07984-y

[OKIsItJustMe]

1. University of Colorado Boulder: 1 in 2 El Nino events could be extreme by mid-century

https://www.colorado.edu/today/2024/09/25/1-2-el-nino-events-could-be-extreme-mid-century

1 in 2 El Niño events could be extreme by mid-century
Sept. 25, 2024 • By Yvaine Ye

With the climate pattern known as El Niño in full force from mid-2023 to mid-2024, global temperatures broke records for 12 months in a row. As one of the strongest El Niño events on record, it was likely the main culprit of unprecedented heat, floods and droughts worldwide.

In a new study published Sep. 25 in the journal Nature, a CU Boulder climate scientist and collaborators reveal that the planet could see more frequent extreme El Niño events by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase.

“It’s pretty scary that 2050 is not very far away,” said Pedro DiNezio, the paper’s co-lead author and associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. “If these extreme events become more frequent, society may not have enough time to recover, rebuild and adapt before the next El Niño strikes. The consequences would be devastating.”

…

During an extreme El Niño, the impacts on global weather tend to be more severe. For example, during the winter of 1997-98, El Niño brought record rainfall to California, causing devastating landslides that killed more than a dozen people. Over the same period, the planet lost about 15% of its coral reefs due to prolonged warming.

…