Are We On The Cusp Of Another Global Crisis?

[cliffside]

FWIW and have not listened to this yet as it was just posted ...about 30 minutes long.

I've listened to his weekly updates for a few years and debated whether or not to post the link here, longer term money manager.

One thing he said a few weeks ago, I'll paraphrase ...

'There are two decisions when you decide to sell, one is when to sell, the other is when to get back in.'

[bucolic_frolic]

1. I used to watch this guy. He hedges his bets at every turn.

If he's on the Cusp it's confirmation that we are over the waterfall in a barrel. He will find out in a few months.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. Analysis paralysis?

I gave it a view because I'm fond of technical analysis, but not like that! He's way too deep in the weeds. I find that plotting lots of moving averages and all the oscillators and the indicators is information overload and ultimately clouds the picture.

I like to plot trend lines and trend channels and support/resistance levels on log price charts. Along with following macro-trends and using simple screening and listening to generate names. One thing he and others do that I find intriguing is working with ratios of indices and stocks.

I grew alarmed by the biggest macro-trend Nov 6 with the orange election. Then in January the macro-trends were getting even worse (tariff threats in particular). When both the SP500 and TSX crossed under a rising lower trend-line I got out of stocks and into bonds.

Later I want to do more such chart pattern analysis but on individual stocks to go long or short.

[bucolic_frolic]

3. Exactly, the markets peaked 2 months ago and he's on the cusp of correction.

Check out many vids on YouTube by Oliver Velez. He teaches price movement real time with candlesticks, but ignores indicators. He uses 2 minute charts and gives long bars a lot of credence. There are a couple short mini lessons free on his website, don't recall if they're always there. I combine his ideas with indicators RSI, Williams, Stochastics. I find this captures the short term turning points over the course of a day, but still there can be a high or low point late morning that reverses.

There's also a guy named Bernd, German I think, uses what he calls market fundamentals with professional sentiment and retail sentiment from CFTC futures data and estimates a probable "zone" as a target. He looks to the future for price probabilities, but I couldn't really follow the analysis.

There are classic books on the subject, but who has the time and budget to read tons of technical trading books. I think I read this one as a library book, it remains relevant as a reference guide, and you might find it at a local library. "Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional" by Constance Brown (1999).

There are also more than a handful of technical trading books available on ebook, a library service, don't know if you have access to such.

Day Trading - Bateman.
Technical Analysis - Srinivasan
Trading Summit, Modern Trading Strategies - Afshari
Gann Theory books by Srinivasan too.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. I have Edwards & Magee, 5th edition, revised and Pring, second edition. Bookmarking your post. . . . nt

[bucolic_frolic]

5. Will check these 2 out, but don't know when I'll get to them, thanks! /nt

[Bernardo de La Paz]

6. They are probably available in more recent editions than those decades old ones. . . . . nt

[progree]

7. Do you (or he?) mean cusp of a bear market? The S&P 500 is down 17.4% from its Feb 19 All time high

"Exactly, the markets peaked 2 months ago and he's on the cusp of correction. "

Edited - on 2nd thought, I'm thinking you are probably talking about his view of things, not your view of "the markets", given the facepalm emoji, now that I look at your post again, /End Edit

My daily update thread on the S&P 500 (with mention of Dow with embedded auto-updating graph.)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/111699775

Corrections start at 10% down, bear markets begin 20% down. The S&P 500 first officially reached correction March 13.

The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 small cap are already in bear markets.

The Dow 30 is very close, but has not quite reached a correction as of Friday's close. Frankly nobody with any knowledge of investing judges the state of the U.S. stock market as a whole based on a price-weighted cherry-picked collection of 30 stocks. (I know you are a lot lot better than that.).

Of the major popular indices, the S&P 500 is far more representative of the total U.S. stock market, having about 80% of the capitalization of the total U.S. stock market, and its performance is very close to that of U.S. total market indices. I've been using the S&P 500 in my writing because there aren't any popular total market indices, but really the best measure of the total U.S. stock market, is well, umm, a total U.S. stock market index.

Another reason I've been using the S&P 500 is that daily data, including dividends, is not available for any total U.S. market index as far back as for the S&P 500.

[cliffside]

9. Agree about too much info and I'll skip over parts of it ... patterns, fib retracements, trend lines etc

work better for me.

Have the 7th edition of E&M

[cliffside]

8. I do find him to be more of a bull in comparison to others, his comment about having an idea of not only ...

when to sell but also reinvest makes sense.