Stay in the market or go to CD's?

[OAITW r.2.0]

4% seems a good safe play.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. I can't advise you, but I can say what I did.

I got completely out of stocks about Jan 9th and into a mix of bond fund and money market.

[Shellback Squid]

2. I may go that route too, the market is too volatile

[marble falls]

3. Stay in the market and buy CDs as you can. CD interest is low.

[multigraincracker]

4. Got to pay the Capital Gains.

Have to figure that in.

[A HERETIC I AM]

5. The fact that the overall market is trending down....

Last edited Tue Mar 25, 2025, 09:13 AM - Edit history (1)

Means the big money is pulling away. Bear in mind the real movers of the major indices are the guys and girls who do the trading for all the Mutual Funds, ETF’s and individual issues held by Insurance companies, Mutual Fund companies, Pension Funds and other massive investors.

To push the DOW around takes billions of dollars in trades.

So if they are selling, where are they putting it? I don’t have to time right now to do any searches, but that’s where I would start.

Where is the money going, and then consider following it. The problem is you are already late. The train has left the station and to get on you’re going to have to drive down the road, if you’ll pardon my metaphor.

[A HERETIC I AM]

6. The answer to "Where are they putting it?"......Cash.

The selloff is just going to cash. Which means the big players are waiting for a bottom to grab bargains.

Fund manager sentiment has been highly correlated with the performance of the S&P 500. BofA analysts led by chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett said dimming views about American stocks have driven a "bull crash" in sentiment, but they indicated the speed and scale of the correction bodes well for the market going forward.

Money managers’ optimism has faded fast in the early days of Trump 2.0. Bank of America’s monthly global fund manager survey revealed sentiment nosedived in March, resulting in the second-worst plunge in global growth expectations and biggest drop in U.S. equity allocation since BofA began conducting the survey in 1994.

Respondents signaled their selling spree helped fuel the stock market’s recent correction as they parked their money on the sidelines—mirroring Warren Buffett’s record $334 billion cash pile.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/growth-expectations-plummeted-global-fund-184101769.html

[Pinback]

7. Trying to time the market is always a total crapshoot

and almost always a bad idea (unless you have access to a crystal ball or a reliable fortune-teller, of course).

I agree with Post #3 in this thread by marble falls — be very cautious about realizing your losses by selling equities or exchanging funds right now. Assuming your diversification strategy is sound, it makes more sense to do very little or nothing with existing allocations in a time of extreme volatility.

But if you don’t need all your cash savings for contingencies, using at least some of the $ to buy CDs is an excellent idea, especially with interest rates still quite high. Investopedia lists several CDs with various terms yielding 4.5% or more:
https://www.investopedia.com/best-cd-rates-4770214

I like the perspective of Morningstar’s Christine Benz, always a voice of sanity and an analyst who not only is brilliant but seems like a kind person (I regularly listen to her on the Morningstar podcast The Long View):

First, Do No Harm
First, what not to do: Dramatic market losses can spark real emotions (anxiety, powerlessness), and it can be tempting to take dramatic portfolio measures in response. With cash yields decent relative to recent history, the stability of money market funds or CDs might look like a tempting and reasonably profitable way to escape the cacophony of the market. You do need some liquid reserves in your portfolio (more on this in a minute), but resist the urge to shift out of stocks entirely. Such a move could buy you some short-term relief, but it will soon be replaced by another nagging worry: Is it time to get back in?

Moreover, retreating to cash only protects you from one risk—further equity losses—but it doesn’t safeguard you against other key trouble spots—specifically, inflation risk or the chance that you’ll outlive your money because your portfolio didn’t grow as much as it needed to. A better plan is to maintain a stock/bond mix that makes sense relative to your goals, life stage, and proximity to needing your money, then rebalance back to your targets periodically. A balanced asset allocation will make sense for most people approaching or in retirement, whereas a more equity-heavy mix will suit investors under 50.

- Source: What Now? An Investor’s To-Do List for Chaotic Markets, Apr 4, 2025
Much more at link: https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/what-now-an-investors-to-do-list-chaotic-markets