Atlanta Fed predicts negative 1.5 percent GDP growth in first quarter

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Hat tip, Joe.My.God.

Golden Age: Atlanta Fed Forecasts GDP Contraction
February 28, 2025

{snip}

BUSINESS
Atlanta Fed predicts negative 1.5 percent GDP growth in first quarter

BY TOBIAS BURNS - 02/28/25 12:53 PM ET

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is projecting a contraction of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.5 percent in the first quarter, flashing a warning sign for the U.S. economy.

The projection is a significant shift for the Atlanta Fed over the last few weeks that comes a little more than a month after President Trump took office. … The Atlanta Fed last week was predicting 2.3 percent positive growth for the first quarter. A month ago, it was registering 3.9 percent growth.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow measure is not an official forecast but rather a running estimate of real GDP growth based on data as it comes in. … The first quarter ends at the end of March, and GDP will be officially calculated by the Commerce Department.

But the forward-looking indicator’s major drop will still be of significant concern to policymakers, economists and markets alike, especially as fourth-quarter GDP registered a strong second estimate this week.

{snip}

[dem4decades]

1. I look forward to Trump telling us how a recession will be good for the country.

And his fucking moron followers believing it.

[wolfie001]

2. He'll call it the Biden Recession for the next 4 years

And the ignorant repuke voters will agree like the cult they are. 2026 election is gonna be a mess.

[dem4decades]

3. Do you mean the armed Trump brownshirts at the polls?

[wolfie001]

5. Elon Musk and the whole techno-steal

Something was very fishy up in PA. Texas and Florida elections seem off and Kentucky as well. John Roberts and his 5 other hench people have left the barnyard door wide open. Only billionaires have rights, basically.

[Voltaire2]

4. There is some speculation that this may

be a temporary distortion caused by a spike in imports driven by the pending tariffs. Those imports deflate the gdp until they get distributed through the economy, at which point they provide an equivalent inflation of the gdp. There is a lag, but the net result is effectively zero.

I suspect this is wishful thinking.