Friday's Jobs Report Will Be Confusing. Here's How to Make Sense of It.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Friday’s Jobs Report Will Be Confusing. Here’s How to Make Sense of It.

The Labor Department’s January survey will include revisions making data for previous months look stronger in some cases and weaker in others.


Friday’s jobs report will be complicated by major revisions in employment data. Graham Dickie/The New York Times

By Ben Casselman
Feb. 6, 2025, 5:03 a.m. ET

The Labor Department’s latest monthly report on hiring and unemployment will include revisions for previous months that should give a more accurate picture of the U.S. job market — but that could also sow confusion.

When the data is released on Friday, one major measure of employment will be revised up. Another will be revised down. Some historical numbers will be revised, but others won’t. And the updates, though part of a routine process, will be taking place in a political environment where both sides have at times expressed skepticism of government economic statistics. ... “There is going to be a massive amount of confusion,” said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project, an economic policy arm of the Brookings Institution.

Here is what economists say you will need to know about the revisions to make sense of the numbers.

The revisions are part of a longstanding annual process.

The monthly job figures are based on two surveys, one of employers and one of households. Those surveys are generally reliable — they involve a number of interviews far larger than a presidential election poll, for example — but they aren’t perfect. And so, once a year, the government reconciles the numbers with less timely but more reliable data from other sources. Similar processes are in place for revising other government statistics, like gross domestic product and personal income.

{snip}

Recent job growth will be revised down.

In August, the Labor Department released preliminary data, based on records from state unemployment insurance offices, showing that employers added roughly 818,000 fewer jobs in 2023 and early 2024 than initially reported. On Friday, the department will release an updated version of those figures and incorporate them into the official jobs data. ... The final revision, which will affect job totals for every month since March 2023, could be larger or smaller than the preliminary estimate. But it will almost certainly be the largest in recent years, possibly the biggest downward adjustment since 2009. That will make job growth during the Biden administration look weaker than previously reported.

{snip}

Ben Casselman writes about economics with a particular focus on stories involving data. He has covered the economy for nearly 20 years, and his recent work has focused on how trends in labor, politics, technology and demographics have shaped the way we live and work. More about Ben Casselman

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. Presumes no mango rigging. This round might have escaped by being only three weeks in. . . . nt

[Wuddles440]

2. Absolutely nothing being...

reported by this administration can be trusted.

[chicoescuela]

3. Exactly. We will only have anecdotal evidence and reliable blue state

information. Wouldn’t be surprised if next month’s job numbers say employment grew by a million thanks to tsf .

[Wuddles440]

4. And unemployment will be at a record low.

GDP will be reaching highs that no one ever thought possible, consumer confidence will be off the charts, and on and on...

[Wiz Imp]

6. Consumer Confidence data is NOT produced by the Government.

If the Trump administration tries to falsify data, consumer confidence will not be one of those data sets falsified.

[Wuddles440]

8. Any reporting from January 20, 2025, ...

on will be controlled by this administration. There will be no 'independent' sources to present any information that could be deemed to be negative or embarrassing. It's right out of the fascist playbook.

[Wiz Imp]

9. WRONG. Stop with the conspiracy theories...

Consumer Confidence release from the Conference Board on January 28

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

Consumers’ optimism about both present and future conditions pulled back

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 5.4 points in January to 104.1 (1985=100). December’s reading was revised up by 4.8 points to 109.5 but was still down 3.3 points from the previous month. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell sharply in January, dropping 9.7 points to 134.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell 2.6 points to 83.9, but remained above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was January 20, 2025.

“Consumer confidence has been moving sideways in a relatively stable, narrow range since 2022. January was no exception. The Index weakened for a second straight month, but still remained in that range, even if in the lower part,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “All five components of the Index deteriorated but consumers’ assessments of the present situation experienced the largest decline. Notably, views of current labor market conditions fell for the first time since September, while assessments of business conditions weakened for the second month in a row. Meanwhile, consumers were also less optimistic about future business conditions and, to a lesser extent, income. The return of pessimism about future employment prospects seen in December was confirmed in January.”

By age group, January’s fall in confidence was led by consumers under 55 years old. Consumers aged 55+ saw a small uptick in confidence. By income group, the sharpest decline in confidence was seen in households earning over $125K, while consumers at the bottom of the income range reported the strongest gains. The confidence gap between the top income groups and those making between $75K and $100K narrowed.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released Jan 24

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Revised Lower
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised lower to 71.1 in January 2025 from a preliminary of 73.2 and compared with 74 in December. The gauge for expectations was revised down to 69.3 from 70.2 and the current conditions subindex was revised lower to 74 from 77.9. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the year were unchanged at 3.3% (vs 2.8% in December), and the 5-year outlook was revised down to 3.2% from 3.3% (vs 3% in December). less
2025-01-24

[Wuddles440]

11. No conspiracy theory!

But believe what you want to believe. I spent 30 years conducting and supervising federal criminal investigations involving both domestic and international activity. Many of these investigations were conducted with many of our intelligence agencies. What's currently transpiring should cause any reasonably sane, informed person alarm, if not panic. My advice would be wake up and get with reality, but you do you. Don't say that you weren't warned though.

[Wiz Imp]

12. Wow! Just Wow.

Not much I can do when a person refuses to acknowledge the truth when it's thrown right in front of their face. This used to be a reality based community. I guess all I can do is ignore people moving forward.

[chicoescuela]

10. 100%. If you hear a lie enough, you will believe it.

[Wiz Imp]

7. The state jobs and unemployment rate data are produced jointly by the states and the USDOL.

States generally are not able to produce their own independent data. So the concerns about the national data will also apply to the state data. And if the Trump administration tries to manipulate the state data, I would expect states to speak out about it.

[Wiz Imp]

5. I take major issue with this statement:

"And the updates, though part of a routine process, will be taking place in a political environment where both sides have at times expressed skepticism of government economic statistics."

I call BS on the both sidesism. The Democrats have NEVER questioned these numbers produced at the Department of Labor who produce these numbers. The only ones who have ever questioned them are Republicans. As one who has worked directly with many of those DOL employees, I know they have always been of the utmost integrity and the data they produced 100% honest.

Years ago, Republicans started to engage in a smear campaign against the DOL numbers because they didn't like the fact that they honestly showed positive economic conditions. They knew what they were doing. They wanted to stoke distrust in the numbers from their gullible voters. Isn't it funny how they never questioned them during the Trump administration?

It is beyond insulting that the media would try to portray this as a "both sides do it" situation." That claim is 100% false. I have to assume this was done to head off concerns that moving forward Democrats are concerned that for the first time ever, those DOL employees will be forced to no longer report honestly, but rather report only numbers sanctioned by the Trump administration. Given all the unlawful and unethical things be done by Trump and Musk in just the past 2 1/2 weeks, can anyone blame Democrats for being concerned that they will no longer be able to rely on the honesty and integrity of the DOL data?