Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

RandySF

(76,066 posts)
Wed Jul 2, 2025, 05:01 AM Jul 2

Nate Silver: Mamdani could be vulnerable in general election 'in theory'

Nate Silver claimed that New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani could be vulnerable in the general election “in theory.”

“As a New Yorker, I’m not looking forward to the ads, but I am excited to cast a general election ballot that could actually matter,” Silver said in a Substack newsletter Tuesday.

“In theory, Zohran could be vulnerable. Whether you count his victory margin as 7 percent or 12 percent, that’s extremely impressive for a candidate who started out polling as low as 1 percent in some surveys. But it’s also not an insurmountable margin. While slightly over a million votes were cast in the Democratic primary, New York City has 5.1 million registered voters.”........

Silver said in his newsletter that in the case that “turnout approaches the numbers that we’ve seen in recent midterms, let alone in presidential years, the November electorate will likely be a lot older than in the unusually youth-skewed primary, with voters who not only disagree with Mamdani on substance but also don’t vibe with his style.”

“So while he’s the favorite, he’s not going to occupy Gracie Mansion without earning it,” he added, referencing the New York City mayor’s residence.


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5380591-nate-silver-mamdani-general-election/

4 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Nate Silver: Mamdani could be vulnerable in general election 'in theory' (Original Post) RandySF Jul 2 OP
What's wrong with his 'style'? elleng Jul 2 #1
Nate Silver, LOL! FSogol Jul 2 #2
ANY candidate can be "vulnerable", provided a few things: no_hypocrisy Jul 2 #3
Look, they have to try something to stop this guy. OldBaldy1701E Jul 2 #4

no_hypocrisy

(52,359 posts)
3. ANY candidate can be "vulnerable", provided a few things:
Wed Jul 2, 2025, 05:30 AM
Jul 2

1. Campaign donations
2. Campaign strategy and advertising
3. The other candidate doesn't f*ck up

OldBaldy1701E

(8,427 posts)
4. Look, they have to try something to stop this guy.
Wed Jul 2, 2025, 07:57 AM
Jul 2

He won despite their attempts to stop him and now they have to rally around him as the Democratic candidate.

Spoiler Alert: They don't want to.

So... watch for other 'hit pieces' from supposedly friendly quarters as the election approaches.

Latest Discussions»Region Forums»New York»Nate Silver: Mamdani coul...