$100 oil? Prolonged Hormuz closure could spark a 1970s-style energy shock

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNBC

Published Sun, Mar 1 2026 5:57 AM EST


Oil markets are bracing for a possible supply shock after U.S. strikes on Iran over the weekend reignited fears that flows through the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted.

While analysts expect an immediate “knee-jerk” reaction to oil prices when trading resumes in New York on Sunday evening, the bigger question is whether tensions could escalate into a sustained interruption of Gulf exports. “At this point, it seems we are looking at a full-scale military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which would be unprecedented and the trajectory impossible to assess,” said Vandana Hari, CEO of energy research firm Vanda Insights.

“If it carries on for days with Iran and its proxies retaliating to the fullest extent, we are looking at the worst-case scenarios for oil, including a major disruption of oil flows through the Middle East,” Hari told CNBC. This is unless the U.S. is able to pre-emptively disarm the Iranian navy and military, as well as ensure tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to flow normally.

With tensions escalating, attention has shifted back to the Strait of Hormuz, where any disruption would have immediate and outsized consequences for global oil and LNG flows.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/01/experts-weigh-potential-scenarios-for-oil-if-strait-of-hormuz-closes.html

[Vogon_Glory]

1. Somehow I doubt a 2020's oil shock will go so well for Orange Julius as the 1973 oil embargo did for Dick Nixon

The 1973 oil embargo occurred because of outside forces and it’s difficult to pin the blame on US actions. Closing the Straights of Hormuz would be a direct response to US actions that had Orange Julius’ fingerprints all over it. I suspect that even a quarter of MAGA’s dumbest followers could figure that out.

[paleotn]

6. Agreed.

[Polybius]

2. I'm glad I went electric n/t

[moonscape]

24. I'm glad I don't drive much!

Thinking of poor commuters who aren’t electric or hybrid.

[Bayard]

3. Yeah, but we have all that Venezuelan oil

[paleotn]

7. Forget the sarcasm emoji?

Global commodity. If a butterfly flaps its wings in Indonesia, the price of oil moves.

[Bayard]

9. I didn't think it was necessary, but okay

[IronLionZion]

4. Considering the situation in Venezuela too, maybe MAGA wants higher oil prices?

He has said he wants Venezuela's oil. Most American oil companies don't want it due to the high cost of rebuilding the infrastructure to bring it to American refineries. So maybe high costs is the point? He also wants American companies to drill more in the USA.

Russia also benefits from higher oil prices.

[paleotn]

8. That last part. Exactly.

For the rest, if Trump thinks he's playing muti-dimensional chess, he's not playing it very well. This may not sort itself out before the mid-terms. And the blame for prices at the pump is easy to place. Something even the most simple Americans can understand, even magats.

[wiggs]

12. Yes. nt

[Javaman]

5. It's times like this, I'm glad I work from home

The orange asshole shit the bed trying to cover up the Epstein files and everyone suffers

There is a wild rabbit monster loose, congress has the mans to stop it, but chooses not to

[flashman13]

10. The nation wide average price for a gallon of regular gas is just shy of $3 with a barrel of oil at $50.

If oil was to double to $100 barrel, that would boost the price at the pump to an average of $6 per gallon. That is roughly what happened during the 1973 oil embargo.

That sounds like some pretty serious inflation. Especially when you consider the price of fuel is reflected through out the entire economy. Yes, the price of eggs will rise.

So we are looking at two major campaign promises made by Trump, low inflation and no wars, spiral down the drain. Even the stupidest MAGAts can figure that out. Trump's mindless attack on Iran could be the end of Donny, MAGA, and the Republican party as a whole. This could result in the midterms being the largest political realignment in American history by a wide margin.

[Mosby]

13. The correlation is superficial, the price of gas is based more on demand and

What the oil monopolies want.

Why Don’t Gas Prices Always Move in Sync with Oil Prices?
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2014/december/why-dont-gas-prices-always-move-in-sync-with-oil-prices

Oil prices and price gouging: Deconstructing the price of gas
https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/oil-prices-and-price-gouging-deconstructing-the-price-of-gas/

[flashman13]

20. If a barrel of oil costs $100, producers can not sell gas for $3 a gallon. That's a fact.

Of course the correlation is not one-to-one. As prices rise, demand will fall. Say that is sufficient to stabilize prices at $4.50. That will still cause devastating inflation. That will ripple through an already shaky economy and an equally shaky political situation. It will destroy people already living on the edge. Of course a drop in crude oil supplies due to a Middle East cut off will have the opposite effect. In 1973 I worked in my family business which provided services to the major oil companies. I watched first hand the insanity that surrounded gas shortages. Within days of the embargo pump prices went up by 50%. In just a few weeks they doubled.

While both articles that you cite are true, they reflect what I will call the normal day to day operation of the oil economy. We are now talking about an extraordinary situation. If Middle East oil supplies are cut off by Trump's war, even for just a few days, normal goes out the window. The price of a barrel of crude will skyrocket. Serious price gouging will become a thing. Demand will also spike as people attempt to keep their tank topped off. Let's see what the oil markets do when trading reopens in just a few hours. I fueled up yesterday. You might consider doing that as well.

[Mosby]

21. I did fill up, at costco.

Paid 3.09/gallon. In phoenix. Everywhere else it's 3.50 to 3.65 per gallon.

[flashman13]

22. Same here. Costco price was $2.79.

[republianmushroom]

11. trumps is hoping this happens prolong Hormuz closure

then he can sell some of Venezuelan oil that he has.

[BaronChocula]

14. But that's ok

We're drilling more of our own oil than we ever have, thanks to trump ( ). So that won't impact us at all because that's how it works. Right? Right? Right? Bueller? Bueller?

[Mosby]

15. The United States is an oil exporter.

We produce far more oil that what we use.

So please explain why the price of crude in the Persian Gulf affects the price of gasoline in the United States.

Take your time.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545

[BaronChocula]

16. How about I waste NO time

and you can do your own research. I will give you a little hint that our domestic production is only one factor impacting the price of oil.

Good luck!

[BumRushDaShow]

17. "So please explain why the price of crude in the Persian Gulf affects the price of gasoline in the United States."

Because the prices of crude are set "globally" and that will eventually trickle down to the cost of the byproducts of it coming out of the refineries that crack it into gasoline and other hydrocarbon fractions.

[Mosby]

18. The official story

Is that the refiners prefer to use light crude from the gulf because it can be processed into gasoline cheaper.

The real reason is that the oil/gasoline/refinery companies have conspired to control the price at the pump. The data bears this out, because the price of crude doesn't track that much anymore with the price of gas. JMO.

[BumRushDaShow]

23. I was born and raised in the city that had the largest number of oil refineries on the east coast

at one time. Driving down to South Philly to the stadiums and arenas was an adventure, where we learned to quickly roll up the windows as one drove past them.



As one flies into Philly International and the planes circled before landing, you could not help but see them. Going over the Platt Bridge down there was a wonderland of flaming towers burning off excess methane gas.

We have experienced over a half century of infamous refinery fires, just going back to the Gulf Oil Refinery and ARCO Refinery fires in 1975 (the latter site eventually bought by PES that had its own fire just 6 years ago) -

PES has spent that time since 2019 cleaning up and decommissioning the site for other purposes. That site did light/sweet crude. There are still other refineries along the Delaware River including Marcus Hook and I believe most are refining Bakken shale oil.

I guarantee that "Fluffians" know all about these refineries. We're not just "Rocky" or "cheesesteaks" or "Snowballs thrown at Santa at an Eagles game" almost 60 years ago (let alone being the home of Independence Hall, the Declaration of Independence, AND the U.S. Constitution).

[CountAllVotes]

19. It just hit over $5.00+ a gallon here

California of course.

I put $20 worth of gasoline in my old car. Its still running some how.

I wonder how I'm managing frankly with all of this HELL on earth right now!