Exclusive: Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei would be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources s

[highplainsdem]

Source: Reuters

In the run-up to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he would likely be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), two sources briefed on the intelligence said.

The assessments, which were produced over the past two weeks, looked broadly at what could occur in Iran following a U.S. intervention and the extent to which a military operation could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic -- now a pronounced objective for Washington.

The IRGC is an elite military force whose purpose is to protect Shi'ite Muslim clerical rule in Iran.

The intelligence agency reports did not conclude any scenario with certainty, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.

-snip-

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/prior-iran-attacks-cia-assessed-khamenei-would-be-replaced-by-hardline-irgc-2026-02-28/

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Please note - this is a different Reuters story than the one about the attack being "high risk, high reward."

[dalton99a]

1. The theocrats in Iran have a deep bench.

[Esox Lucius]

2. Makes sense......Without boots on the ground or an armed and. organized

an armed and organized opposition force, I dont see how regime change can happen.

[Fla Dem]

3. Of course he would be replaced by a younger IRGC leader.

Trump would have to wipe out pretty much the whole Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to have an impact. You don't think they've had a plan in place for years to replace "the Supreme Leader"? They've been waiting for the opportunity and Trump just gave it to them. That's if Khamenei was actually killed.

[kurtyboy]

12. Yes, they HAD TO HAVE a plan for replacement

Khamenei was nearly dead anyway--86 years old and under treatment for cancer. He might die/may have died any day now. A 47-year-old regime didn't get there by not being ready for this kind of succession. If they were that inept, the regime would have folded when Ayatollah Khomeini kicked the bucket in 1989.

[NYC Liberal]

4. Trump doesn't care what actually happens.

He only cares about so things: overcompensating for his insecurities by making people stuffer or die, and more importantly, distracting from the fact that he’s a pedophile.

[Martin68]

5. This is something that had occurred to me and should have been an important part of any decision to bomb Iran.

If the Trump administration was actually interested in helping the Iranian people overthrow the government, we might have a better outcome. But he encouraged the people to revolt and did nothing to back them up. Reminds me of Hungary in 1956 or The Bay of Pigs in Cuba.

[snot]

6. The plan is to keep removing leaders until they get one they can buy off -

like in Venezuela.

At least, that's the explanation that makes the most sense to me; because it sure isn't about spreading democracy or our national security.

(History shows we really don't care what kind of tyrant gets into power, as long as they'll allow us to loot their country in exchange for a cut.)

[herding cats]

17. Iran is ahead on that.

They have already been discussing who could be "the Delcy of Iran," when/if Khamenei were taken out. Rumors have been leaning toward Ali Larijani. He's the one Khamenei put in charge of quashing the recent protests. He's not high cleric, so not direct replacement for the Ayatollah. I'm not convinced he'll make it through this alive yet, though.

[ChicagoTeamster]

7. The IRCG are Soleimani's people. Trump killed him with a drone strike in 2019. We killed another commander last year.

And we probably killed the current one today. If they pick another ayatollah it won't be a big deal. Their job is to keep the Islamic government in power. It will be the same. But, they will eventually plot retaliation against Trump and maybe his family.

[NEOBuckeye]

8. Supposedly they got him. It won't make things better though.

I agree with you. I don’t think Iran is going to become more peaceful and democratic. If anything, they will become even more violent and vengeful towards Israel and the U.S.

Trump and Netanyahu just poured gasoline on an already smoldering fire.

I worry about terrorist attacks targeting Americans here and abroad. And I do think they will go after Trump and his kin, as well as Netanyahu.

The former should concern us all. We are all less safe now than we were yesterday.

[Aussie105]

9. I agree.

This action by Bibi and Donald might make them hard in their pants, but it achieves nothing.

And it makes daily lives for Americans more dangerous.
911 already forgotten?

[JI7]

10. Yes, but not just that. I think these are privileged people that benefit financially

and live well under the regime. Their kids go abroad to other nations and live a more free life .

I think these are the real power . Although Israel has been taking out many in this also.

[kurtyboy]

11. I studied political science and public policy in graduate school.

My academic response to this is a very sarcastic, NO SHIT.

[Tarc]

13. Ask Hezbollah how the line of succession went after Nasrallah

Pretty sure it went

boom
boom
boom
boomboom

They aren't going to be so eager to put a target on their backs right after the last guy was snuffed.

[Figarosmom]

14. Well they killed the head of

The IRGC too.

[Aussie105]

15. I'm having trouble digging through a thick layer of obfuscation and vagueness

to find out what the real problem is with Iran.

There is a long list of historic distrust in the US when it comes to some Middle Eastern countries.

Could it be:

1. Islam isn't like Christianity, is it an inferior religion not to be trusted?

2. Their dress, language and sabre-rattling rhetoric are offensive?

3. Repressive, authoritarian regime? (Seeing Trump is trying to do the same in the US, that shouldn't be a problem.)

4. Refusing to kowtow to the USA and admit its moral superiority?

I need some help digging down to the reality here!
It's a deep dig going back decades!

Worth a read:
https://facts.net/history/historical-events/20-historical-facts-about-the-tensions-with-iran/

[Karma13612]

16. Yup, nothing will change

At least For women.

So that’s why I’m a bit surprised about any “celebrating” that’s being witnessed. What are they celebrating exactly. The terror and oppression will continue.