Consumer sentiment tumbles in April as inflation fears spike, University of Michigan survey shows

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNBC

Published Fri, Apr 11 2025 10:07 AM EDT Updated 2 Min Ago


Consumer sentiment grew even worse than expected in April as the expected inflation level hit its highest since 1981, a closely watched University of Michigan survey showed Friday.

The survey’s mid-month reading on consumer sentiment fell to 50.8, down from 57.0 in March and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 54.6. The move represented a 10.9% monthly change and was 34.2% lower than a year ago. It was lowest reading since June 2022 and the second lowest in the survey’s history going back to 1952. As sentiment moved lower, inflation worries surged.

Respondents’ expectation for inflation a year from now leaped to 6.7%, the highest level since November 1981 and up from 5% in March. At the five-year horizon, the expectation climbed to 4.4%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from March and the highest since June 1991. Other measures in the survey also showed deterioration.

The current economic conditions index fell to 56.5, an 11.4% drop from March, while the expectations measure slipped to 47.2, a 10.3% fall and its lowest since May 1980. On an annual basis, the two measures dropped 28.5% and 37.9%, respectively. Stocks turned negative following the report and Treasury yields added to gains. “Consumers have spiraled from anxious to petrified,” wrote Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/consumer-sentiment-tumbles-in-april-as-inflation-fears-spike-university-of-michigan-survey-shows.html

[Bluetus]

1. Here is why the tariff chaos should be important to millions of Americans

Obviously, Trump's actions are highly inflationary. That's reason enough to be concerned.

But for those that have been able to accumulate some wealth toward retirement, perhaps in a 401K, they basically have a choice between equities (corporate stock and mutual funds of stocks) or fixed income instruments (bonds, CDs, T-bills, etc.) There are other investments, but these are the main ones the average person would use.

Most financial advisors recommend some balance between these asset classes. Fixed income instruments are relatively safe, but in the best case, you may only keep up with inflation -- in other words, no real investment return. Equities are higher risk. You might double your money or you might lose half your money, or worse. Financial advisors love to preach "In modern times, nobody has lost any money if they were able to keep their money invested in stocks for 10 years or more."

And there's the problem. That 10--year folklore is somewhat true, particularly if you invest in a diverse portfolio, such as the SP500. But we have never had anybody like Trump. He is operating effectively as a dictator, and he makes his money through scams and shakedowns, so he has no interest in the stability of markets. Indeed, he is INTENTIONALLY creating INSTABILITY because he and his friends can profit from their early knowledge of Trump's destructive actions.

This is why people should care. We can no longer trust the equity markets, and we certainly cannot count on the 10-year rule, unless we believe we will somehow escape from the fascist takeover in the next decade. So 401Ks are getting beat up, and the best anybody can do is move money to bonds that probably won't come close to keeping up with the inflation Trump is spawning.

[progree]

2. A couple of the graphs ...

The source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Here's a couple of the graphs:




And links to three more:

Current Economic Conditions Index http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chiccr.pdf
Index of Consumer Expectations http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicer.pdf
Expected Changes in Prices During the Next Five Years http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chpx5r.pdf

They also have Excel versions of all of the above.

All of the above are the 10 year graphs. They also have 50 year graphs, both PDF and Excel of all of the above.
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/charts.html

[BumRushDaShow]

3. That doesn't look good.