U.S. payroll growth totals 151,000 in February, less than expected

[BumRushDaShow]

Last edited Fri Mar 7, 2025, 10:22 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: CNBC

Published Fri, Mar 7 2025 8:31 AM EST Updated 10 Min Ago


Job growth was weaker than expected in February though still stable despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to slash the federal workforce.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 on the month, better than the downwardly revised 125,000 in January but less than the 170,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1%.



The report comes amid efforts from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to pare down the federal government, starting with buyout incentives and including mass firings that have impacted multiple departments.

Though the reductions likely won’t be felt fully until coming months, the efforts are beginning to show. Federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February though government payrolls overall increased by 11,000, the BLS said.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/jobs-report-february-2025.html

---

From the source -

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Payroll employment rises by 151,000 in February; unemployment rate changes little at 4.1% https://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
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8:32 AM · Mar 7, 2025

Article updated.

Previous articles -

Published Fri, Mar 7 2025 8:31 AM EST Updated 15 Min Ago


Job growth was weaker than expected in February as the Trump administration began to slash the federal workforce.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 on the month, better than the downwardly revised 125,000 in January but less than the 170,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1%.

The report comes amid efforts from Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency to pare down the federal government, starting with buyout incentives and including mass firings that have impacted multiple departments.

Though the reductions likely won't be felt fully until coming months, the efforts are beginning to show. Federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February though government payrolls overall increased by 11,000, the BLS said.

Published Fri, Mar 7 2025 8:31 AM EST Updated 3 Min Ago


Job growth was weaker than expected in February as the Trump administration began to slash the federal workforce.
ob growth was weaker than expected in February as the Trump administration began to slash the federal workforce.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 on the month, better than the downwardly revised 125,000 in January but less than the 170,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1%.

The report comes amid efforts from Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency to pare down the federal government, starting with buyout incentives and including mass firings that have impacted multiple departments.

Though the reductions likely won't be felt fully until coming months, the efforts are beginning to show. Federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February though government payrolls overall increased by 11,000, the BLS said.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

Published Fri, Mar 7 2025 8:31 AM EST Updated Moments Ago


Job growth was weaker than expected in February as the Trump administration began to slash the federal workforce.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 on the month, better than the downwardly revised 125,000 in January and less than the 170,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1%

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

Original article -

Published Fri, Mar 7 2025 8:31 AM EST


Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase 170,000 in February, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

[underpants]

1. Hard to figure how that happened

[Yavin4]

3. There's a healthy amount ot consumption going on ahead of the impending tariffs. n/t

[progree]

2. LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs. And yes these are NET job gains

The reported nonfarm payroll jobs are jobs created and job openings filled minus jobs lost: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143221098#post24

The headline payroll job numbers (151,000 in February) come from the Establishment Survey
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022: 225 869 471 305 241 461 696 237 227 400 297 126
2023: 444 306 85 216 227 257 148 157 158 186 141 269
2024: 119 222 246 118 193 87 88 71 240 44 261 323
2025: 125 151 (Last 14 months: 2,288,000 more jobs, which is 156,000 jobs/month average)
The last 2 months (Jan and Feb) are preliminary, subject to revisions

# Employed in thousands (DOWN 588,000 in February) come from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
If one adjusts the date range from 2021 to 2025, the graph is much more meaningful because it leaves out the huge swings of 2020 that greatly enlarges the Y axis and makes what follows look like tiny almost undiscernible squiggles around the zero axis
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022 1016 483 608 --315 487 --284 164 477 75 --126 --177 752
2023 958 178 417 162 --178 183 204 292 --33 --231 675 --762
2024 66 --177 412 70 --331 --9 64 206 377 --346 --273 478
2025 2234 --588 (Last 14 months: 2,183,000 more jobs)
Compare to the above series: 105,000 fewer jobs over the past 14 months. Not a bad discrepancy, compared to some past reports where they were like a million jobs different)
January and February of each year are affected by changes in population controls.
A very volatile data series from month to month. I used a double minus to make the negative ones stand out a little better
This Household Survey also produces the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate among many other stats

REVISIONS of the prior 2 months: down 2,000, from the BLS news release:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 16,000, from
+307,000 to +323,000, and the change for January was revised down by 18,000, from +143,000 to
+125,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 2,000 lower than
previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses
and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal
factors.)

So compared to the report that came out one month ago we have 151,000 - 2,000 = 149,000 net new payroll jobs reported.

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LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs

Table A - Summary of Household Survey (produces unemployment rate, labor force participation rate) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Table B - Summary of Establishment Survey (produces the headline payroll jobs number and the average earnings) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm

Every one of these data series comes with a table and graph:

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

# Employed in thousands from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02000000

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
    ^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0500000001

Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisor Workers (PANSW)
. . . # INFLATION ADJUSTED Hourly Earnings of PANSW http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032
. . . # INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of PANSW http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031
----- Nominal means NOT inflation adjusted. Just plain ordinary greenbacks ----
. . . # Nominal Hourly Earnings of PANSW- http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000008
. . . # Nominal Weekly Earnings of PANSW - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000030

# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth

The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed. To count as unemployed, one must have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks (just looking at want ads and job postings doesn't count)

# ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Unemployed, Unemployment Rate
# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
    # Black unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
    # Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009
    # White unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003
# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709
------------ end unemployed, unemployment rates --------

# NILF -- Not in Labor Forcehttp://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

# NILF-WJ -- Not in Labor Force, Wants Job http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194

# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000

# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000

# Multiple Job holders (Table A-9) - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026619

# Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (Table A-9) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026620

# Civilian non-institutional population
Seasonally adjusted (they seem to have gotten rid of this) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000
NOT seasonally adjusted: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU00000000
. . In Table A-1 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm they show the same numbers for seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted

LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered. Looking for work involves more than just looking at job listings). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+ (in the case of the regular LFPR, or divided by the civilian non-institutional population of whatever age, gender, race etc. for the various sub-demographic measures. For example. the LFPR of age 25-54 females is the number of those employed or actively seeking work divided by the civilian non-institutional population of age 25-54 females.)

SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54 ("Prime Age" ): SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55-64: -------------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

LFPR - Labor Force Particpation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062

More LFPR links including by race: https://www.democraticunderground.com/111695870

ETPR - Employment to Population Ratio for some age groups
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300000
25-34: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300089
25-54 ("Prime Age" ): SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300060
55-64: SA: ---------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300097

Data series finder (employment/unemployment related): https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

The entire report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Inflation rate (CPI)
. . . Monthly report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
. . . Regular CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Core CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Energy: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0E?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Food: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAF1?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Food at home (groceries): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAF11?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Calculator at: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
. . . One Screen Data Search for CPI components: https://data.bls.gov/PDQWeb/cu

Grocery prices (food at home) inflation compared to overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.in2013dollars.com/Food-at-home/price-inflation
. . . From 1947 to 2021 and from 2000 to 2021, food at home inflation very slightly lagged the overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142735789


Archives of previous reports - The monthly payroll employment reports from the BLS are archived at Archived News Releases (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/ ). In the list up at the top, under Major Economic Indicators, select Employment Situation ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm ). That opens up links to reports going back to 1994.

[modrepub]

4. Keep An Eye On Later Revisions

We'll see how this number holds up. Not that I'd expect much change at the moment. As other's have pointed out, there has been a lot of forward-consumption to protect from Trump's tariffs.

I wouldn't put much stock in seeing a trend in anything for a few months. Markets tend to react quickly but the US economy is like a huge cargo ship, it takes awhile for the steering and engines to turn the boat in a different direction.

That said, ETTD, so maybe the bottom will fall out faster. I will be interested to see what happens if the economy slows, tax receipts drop and our borrowing starts picking up. Given all the bridges Trump is burning, I wonder how accelerated Treasury auctions will hold up and how much interest rates will have to go up to attract capital to finance our debt.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. "That said, ETTD, so maybe the bottom will fall out faster. "

It did fall out at the beginning of the pandemic when businesses abruptly shut down!

UE



The GDP took an immediate hit as well -

[wiggs]

5. Hard to know which numbers to trust...these days. nt

[mahatmakanejeeves]

7. From the source, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Payroll employment rises by 151,000 in February; unemployment rate changes little at 4.1%
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.

Economic News Release USDL-25-0296
Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, March 7, 2025

Technical information:
Household data: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: [phone] * [e-mail]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2025


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in February. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Whites (3.8 percent) increased in February. The jobless rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.8 percent), teenagers (12.9 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), Asians (3.2 percent), and Hispanics (5.2 percent) showed little change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.5 million, changed little in February. The long-term unemployed accounted for 20.9 percent of all unemployed people. (See table A-12.)

The employment-population ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 59.9 percent in February but showed little change from a year earlier. The labor force participation rate, at 62.4 percent, changed little over the month and over the year. (See table A-1.)

The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million in February. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)

The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job increased by 414,000 to 5.9 million in February. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.7 million, changed little in February. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, decreased by 128,000 to 464,000 in February. (See Summary table A.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, similar to the average monthly gain of 168,000 over the prior 12 months. In February, employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined. (See table B-1.)

Health care added 52,000 jobs in February, in line with the average monthly gain of 54,000 over the prior 12 months. In February, job growth continued in ambulatory health care services (+26,000), hospitals (+15,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+12,000).

Employment in financial activities rose by 21,000 in February, above the prior 12-month average gain (+5,000). Over the month, employment continued to trend up in real estate and rental and leasing (+10,000) and insurance carriers and related activities (+5,000). Commercial banking lost 5,000 jobs.

Transportation and warehousing employment continued to trend up in February (+18,000), in line with the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+13,000). Over the month, job growth occurred in couriers and messengers (+24,000) and air transportation (+4,000).

Employment in social assistance continued to trend up in February (+11,000), below the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+21,000). Over the month, employment continued to trend up in individual and family services (+10,000).

Within government, federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February.

Employment in retail trade changed little over the month (-6,000) and has shown little net change over the year. In February, employment in food and beverage retailers declined by 15,000, largely due to strike activity. Warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers added 10,000 jobs.

Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; information; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $35.93. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0 percent. In February, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 9 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $30.89. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

In February, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.1 hours. In manufacturing, the average workweek remained at 40.1 hours, and overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 16,000, from +307,000 to +323,000, and the change for January was revised down by 18,000, from +143,000 to +125,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 2,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

_____________
The Employment Situation for March is scheduled to be released on Friday, April 4, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

* * * * *

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from these releases will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone], Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.

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Last month's report:
Fri Feb 7, 2025, 08:32 AM: U.S. economy added just 143,000 jobs in January but unemployment rate fell to 4%

[progree]

8. The survey week for both surveys is usually the week containing the 12th. So this report's survey was done Feb 10-14

if the usual applies. So that was 3 to 3 1/2 weeks after Krasnov took office. I don't know how many federal workers had been fired by then.

The two surveys that go into these (usually) first Friday jobs reports are:

      # The Establishment Survey which produces the headline payroll jobs numbers (151,000 increase in this report)

      # The Household Survey which produces the headline unemployment rate (4.1% in this report), and several others such as labor force participation rate. The Household Survey is a monthly survey of 60,000 households. Note that this does NOT come from state unemployment insurance claims filings.

As for "unexpected" increase in unemployment rate (expected: 4.0%, same as in the prior month's report) - the article cited in the Featured Stories posting ( https://archive.is/PdAW7 ) doesn't say anything or any hint about it or what group of economists produced the forecast. But the MarketWatch Calendar's ( https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar ) economists also forecast a 4.0% rate (and as just reported, it came out to be 4.1%)

"The median forecasts in this calendar come from surveys of economists conducted by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal."

Just a couple bits of info.