Tropical Storm Milton Tropical Cyclone Update

[nitpicked]

Source: National Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the depression has
strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1225 PM CDT...1725 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Read more: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/051725.shtml

[lark]

1. Oh man, not again so soon!

Tampa just got hit by a 6 ft storm surge, the big bend was destroyed, and even in Jax. - far from the storm - we got 70 mph winds and LOTS of trees down.

[nitpicked]

2. Who knows?

At the moment, it MAY be on a Tampa-Daytona Beach beeline, but models are ALWAYS subject to change.

[Cheezoholic]

3. Angles and size (as in physical size) are as important if not more important surge forces than brute strength

So 2 things. If this thing takes a path across the GOM say into Pinellas county/Tampa Bay area, even if it by chance should become a major, as of now the wind field associated with it is half the size of Helene as it formed. Not to say that can't change but usually when a storm forms it's parent wind (basically how large the initial cyclonic flow around the forming center is) field will define the eventual size of the storm itself. Right now this ones wind field is looking average if not a bit below average for tropical systems so the chances this could be a monster storm with a radius of tropical storm force winds of 200 miles like Helene had are slim. Why is this important? Simple. Tropical storm force winds are the speed that can significantly begin to pile water (more in a moment) thereby building storm surge over a larger area of coastline for much longer than a normal storm.

Then angles, angles, angles! Angles are so important to storm surge. Storm surge along the west coast of Fl. is extremely sensitive to the angle (and size) of the storm. Simply because the right front quadrant of a storm is where the highest storm surge will be located. A storm approaching the west coast (or Big Bend) from the SSW will, via geography, simply pile more water into an ever decreasing space with nowhere for that water to go but up and inland. This was one of the reasons, combining with the size, Helene caused such a large surge up and down the West coast of FL maximizing in the Big Bend area (the right front around the eyewall usually has the highest surge) It was the absolute perfect angle to pile water up against the West coast for DAYS.

So if this thing hits the West coast its going to be coming in more perpendicular which will confine excessive storm surge closer to the right front core of the storm and be at least an average size storm, maybe a radius of 100 miles of tropical storm force winds.

Does that mean it can't cause an even bigger surge than Helene in the Pinellas county or Tampa Bay areas? Absolutely not, but it will probably take a dead on hit into Clearwater with a strong Cat2-Cat3 storm to cause a 6 to 10 ft surge from this angle.

So if you haven't figured out by now if you live in a Pinellas/Tampa storm surge prone area here's your warning. They were forecasting a 6-9ft surge in that area 4 days prior to Helene so to those of you who did not listen, fuck around and find out. I'm sick of people saying they didn't see the last one coming. The entire West coast of FL thru the Big Bend up through GA and into the southern Appalachians had a good 4-5 day warning that you were about to get your ass kicked (including a forecast record crest of the French Broad in Asheville) by Helene. The scientists did everything they could to warn 10's of millions (and yes, many took it seriously and evacuated, including the Mntn's), but if you went to Taco bell instead of being smart, well ......

[yaesu]

4. The water temps are not as hot thanks to helene churning up the cooler ocean deep water

plus other factors point to this not being a major threat but will see.

[Blues Heron]

6. Helenes fast forward speed and the deep heat content of the loop current resulted in less cooling than usual

according to Jeff Masters and Bob Hensons latest eye on the storm blog entry- https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/10/major-landfalling-hurricane-threat-setting-up-for-floridas-west-coast/

[mdbl]

5. I hope the next hurricane will at least wait until I get the trees removed that Helene knocked down

[pfitz59]

7. Watch out for Milton

[LeftInTX]

8. Current path/cone

Models show consensus about the path. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#14L

Of course that could change, especially if to starts to jog to the north. It's fall. Once that thing hits a latitude of 25 degrees, it might be more prone "continental influences".

This thing is barely moving an NHC is calling for RI, but I don't see a major in the path yet.

[nitpicked]

9. 5 pm edt update

Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...MILTON FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF
LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 95.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the
progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida on Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Milton is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow
east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight. A
slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast
by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the depression is
forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through
Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on
Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could
become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
(snip)

[RussBLib]

10. potential Cat 2 with 110mph winds

...headed towards Tampa. The GOM temps are still VERY warm. Upper 80's. Take it seriously.

https://russblib.blogspot.com/