Gallup Partisanship Poll: What It Could Mean

[VBNMW_Realist]

For the last 3 quarters, Republicans have had a 9 or 10 point deficit in partisanship including independent leaners despite having a lead of 4% in the 3rd quarter of 2024, significantly more than the 2024 election results. It beats the 2018 edge for Democrats which was around 6%.

This is the publicly shown page which does not show the quarterly (but other news on Twitter has been circulating it): https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

It is too early to say confidently, but I think this time is different because of how badly Trump is messing things up, and how his approval rating is lower than Biden's was, or his own first term. This is a part of how Democrats have been outperforming in many special elections, and why the New Jersey governor election was a significantly larger victory than party registration data suggests and part of why Virginia was such a blowout. (Democrats typically underperform party registration spreads in New Jersey.)

If we are undergoing a realignment where enough voters (mostly independent and moderate dentifying Republican voters) abandon the GOP, it would usher in a new era of social progress (as long as "the establishment centrists" can't screw things up). (But we will still need to show up to vote to make sure that it stays that way.)

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Like I've been saying

Nothing can stop the Blue Tsunami.

And the republicans know it,

[Random Boomer]

4. No democratic process can stop the Blue Tsunami....

But there's no guarantee that Trump and the GOP will drop all pretense of democracy and try for an outright power grab.

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. Outside of the executive branch, they have little physical control over *anything*

10,000 ICE agents couldn’t control Minneapolis, despite the carnage and disruption caused.

Thousands of National Guard troops couldn’t control LA.

Despite acting with lawless impunity daily, This administration has been stalled, stymied or restrained by the courts numerous times.

Never forget this one absolute truth:

Trump is not omnipotent, and the states and the people are not powerless

On top of that, in addition to being the most corrupt administration in history, they are also the most incompetent .

Onward to November and victory!

[everyonematters]

2. The policies we achieve when we get control will be determinate as to whether we keep it.

If we don't make a significant difference in people lives, we will lose it.

[Ol Janx Spirit]

3. Never underestimate how much "the establishment centrists" can screw things up.

People likely turned back to the guy that incited an insurrection for just this reason.

You have to show people results in fighting for what's right or they will just revert back to what they know. This isn't true just in politics--it is pretty much all aspects of life.

A win in November is just the first step. Some people seem to know that and are looking forward with new ideas; while others seem to think getting back to the status quo ante bellum is the path forward.

With any luck we will get a chance to find out. I would gladly take my chances with anything that displaces MAGA even for a short time at this point.

[Betty Boom]

5. Careful

I would be careful about interpreting these numbers that way. The 2025 split is identical to what it was in 2016. And we all know what happened in 2016. 😟