I Told You The Price Of Crude Is Being Rigged

[gab13by13]

Just imagine where Krasnov would be today with crude at $150/barrel and gasoline at $7/gallon, the pitchforks would be out.

Every time that Krasnov proclaims that a peace deal is imminent, crude drops 3%, even though the negotiations are bogus, are Kabuki Theater, Iran doesn't want a deal.

Numbers don't lie, liars lie, the supply of crude oil is down by 12.8 million barrels per day.

Countries like the US have been depleting their strategic oil reserves and those reserves are at historic lows.

At some point the price of crude and gasoline will have to reflect what is going on.

WTI is below $90/barrel, and Brent is $92/barrel, nothing warrants those low numbers.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/disconnected-oil-futures-market-could-see-price-spike-within-weeks/ar-AA25eHqq?

[Srkdqltr]

1. Oil prices have always been rigged. They go up and down when opec leaders need new stuff.

[Exp]

36. They've been rigged (subsidized) to keep prices low for the last 60 years about. eom

[UpInArms]

2. The EIA reported this morning

EIA Petroleum Status Report
Gasoline Inventories - W/W
Crude Oil Inventories - W/W
Distillate Inventories - W/W
High
3.4M barrels
-8.0M barrels
1.5M barrels
--
--
--
0.2M barrels
-7.2M barrels
-0.2M barrels

[dem4decades]

3. i have no idea what that means.

[UpInArms]

7. The EIA reports on our inventory of fossil fuels

Crude Oil Production Re-benchmarking Notice: Each month, when we publish the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we review weekly estimates of domestic crude oil production to spot any differences between recent survey-based production trends reported in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) and other current data. If we identify a significant discrepancy between these sources, we may re-benchmark the weekly production estimate during the STEO release week. For this week, the domestic crude oil production estimate includes a re-benchmarking adjustment that increased estimated volumes by 88,000 barrels per day, or about 0.64% of this week's estimated production total.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2026/2026_06_03/pdf/wpsrall.pdf

This week’s report show that last week, we added 3.4 million barrels of gasoline, this week, we added .02 million barrels of gasoline

Last week, our inventory of crude oil dropped by 8 million barrels and dropped an additional 7.2 million this week

Last week, Distillate Inventories were up by 1.5 million barrels, this week, they were down by .2 million barrels

[onenote]

4. If they have that much control and wanted to help Trump, why don't they lower price to where it was in February?

I mean if they really wanted to help Trump, they'd lower it back to around $70 a barrel, right?

[gab13by13]

8. It's a happy medium right?

The fossil fuel industry isn't going to pass up the obscene profits it is making at $100/barrel. Krasnov can rationalize $4/gal but have a hard time at $7/gal.

How many times has Krasnov proclaimed that a peace deal is imminent? Like 38 times? Then the price of crude drops 3% based on fiction. Where would we be today if all of those price drops didn't happen?

We have a war going on in the ME, crude oil should be $150/barrel today, the fossil fuel industry has done quite a lot to protect Krasnov.

After all look what Krasnov has done for them; giving them government land to drill on, gutting regulations, gutting subsidies for alternative energy, pausing the Jones Act, etc. etc.

[Raven123]

19. Let's see what happens as the November elections near

These guys have flourished under Trump. They will ride this horse as long as possible. He faces NO effective resistance at this time.

[Takket]

5. Another article

We have been riding on reserves since drumpf started this war for Bibi, but those will run out in July. Even is a deal is signed now, and the strait opened tomorrow, we t will take longer than that to replenish the reserves.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Countdown-to-a-Major-Oil-Price-Surge-Has-Begun.html

[gab13by13]

9. Yes, and the people who set the prices are very much aware of that scenario.

[Initech]

6. The oil companies fucking suck. Yet we're practically forced to buy their products.

[SamuelTheThird]

10. It's all going to hit a wall at some point this year

Then prices will rapidly spike up

[MichMan]

35. You should buy as much oil futures as you can then

When that occurs, you will make a fortune.

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. I think you've missed some other influencing factors

Around the same time Trump made his latest announcement that a deal was close, OPEC+ also announced they were increasing their daily quota of oil production.

I think that has had more impact on futures than Trump’s meaningless pronouncements, which I think the markets have already priced in and are mostly ignoring at this point.

[gab13by13]

13. From my co-pilot search

Copilot Search Branding

OPEC+ Increases Oil Production Despite Strait of Hormuz Blockade
OPEC+ — the alliance of OPEC and allied producers — has approved a 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in oil output for July 2026, marking the fourth consecutive month of higher production targets UPI+1. The move comes despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed since February 2026 due to the ongoing U.S.–Iran war, which has cut global oil flows through the chokepoint and created the largest supply disruption in decades UPI+1.

Who’s Involved
The decision was made by seven core OPEC+ members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman UPI+1. The United Arab Emirates, OPEC’s third-largest producer, left the group in May, reducing the cartel’s size and altering its production dynamics CNA+1.

Context and Impact
Market conditions: OPEC+ is gradually unwinding a 1.65 million bpd voluntary production cut agreed in 2023, with about 567,000 bpd of that cut to be returned by July CNA.

Real-world output: Despite the target hike, actual OPEC+ production has fallen sharply — averaging 33.19 million bpd in April 2026 compared to 42.77 million bpd in February, due to export cuts by Gulf members CNA+1.

Strait of Hormuz: The closure has blocked roughly 20% of global oil supply from passing through, making the July increase largely symbolic in terms of actual market impact UPI+1.

Analyst view: Experts like Jorge Leon of Rystad note that “an OPEC+ production increase means very little while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed,” warning that reopening could quickly shift markets from shortage fears to surplus concerns CNA+1.

Strategic Considerations
OPEC+ members say the July hike is part of a cautious approach to support market stability, with flexibility to pause, accelerate, or reverse production changes depending on conditions TheCable+1. The group also reaffirmed its commitment to compensate for overproduced volumes from January 2024 through December 2026 TheCable.

Oil Prices
As of mid-June, Brent crude was around $93 per barrel, down from near $72 before the war, reflecting some easing of market anxiety over a potential reopening of the Strait CNA+1.

In summary: OPEC+ is raising output targets to manage market expectations, but the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz severely limits the practical effect of these increases, keeping oil markets volatile and dependent on geopolitical developments.

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. I think the markets pay more attention to actual production of oil

Than they do to Trump’s empty, meaningless pronouncements that peace is at hand, especially with the tit-for-tat attacks this week.

[gab13by13]

15. I have been following the price of crude for 3 months,

When Krasnov announces a peace deal is imminent, crude oil drops between 2 and 3%. He has made like 38 of those announcements.

[Fiendish Thingy]

22. See post #17 Nt

[ProfessorGAC]

23. You Do Realize That

2 to 3% times 38 pronouncements is 76 to 114%, right?
Your math makes no sense.

[maxsolomon]

28. It goes back up when the deal fails to materialize or an attack happens.

It's not cumulative.

[ProfessorGAC]

29. That's Not What The OP Said

I'm challenging the assertion & the way it was made.
The OP did not use the qualifiers you used, and should have.
Leaving those out was a convenience to reinforce the conclusion. The conclusion may be quite different without those omitted facts.

[Melon]

17. This. Track Brent Physical Delivery

Versus Brent futures.
The pricing is in line with Brent futures because oil is readily available now. Countries were paying $150 barrel to take ready available oil in April. It’s not happening now because oil is available and the panick buying has stopped.

[gab13by13]

18. How can you say the price is in line with Brent futures when

countries oil reserves will be degraded in July? The use of oil reserves has propped up supply and that is just a Band-Aid fix.

[marble falls]

27. Reserves are just that: reserves. They can only put down pressure on prices for months ...

... till they are pumped down and then restocking them puts pressure to raise prices again. The strategic reserves were meant to keep the old oil burning Navy at sea if oil was cut off to the US back when we were a net importing country. Now we are a net oil exporting nation, the largest oil exporter in the world for more than twenty years. The Saudis and Russians (#2 and #3 exporters) do about 2/3s each the oil we export.

The reserves were never meant to affect price, they were meant to muddle through a shortage. There is no shortage. There's plenty of oil if you want to pay the price. In a shortage prices go up and there's still not enough oil. There's plenty of oil right now. All this speculation has done is give US producer's and refiners the biggest and longest pay days they've ever had. It's a rigged market and you and I get no benefit from it.

[Melon]

30. Exactly what I said. Current available oil is tracking with futures

Look at the numbers.

Reserves of who will be degraded in July? The US is still above the minimum floor on the 5 year average and china has oil through 2026. We have more reserves we can use.

I can’t post pictures or charts on DU, or at least don’t know how. Look at the numbers. Brent and wti are both futures. Look at the readily available oil I listed above. The pricing on oil futures is lower than today. Given today’s current situation, the oil traders are not agreeing with your take on the market.

[marble falls]

31. Exactly right. This is all about pricing, not availability.

[GoodRaisin]

12. The only way to end this is to remove Krasnov and get out.

Iran will keep the strait hostage until he is no longer president. Krasnov will do nothing but continue to lie and sit on his big fat lazy ass.

[relogic]

24. Shared frustration and crushed optimism

are my sentiments.

This up and down scaling of rigged oil markets go deeper than removing one tool like fossil fuel lover drumptd. The political, economic structure for this at-the-pump-merry-go-round is well entrenched no matter what compromised lackey occupies the executive.

The oil industry, like all massive resource operations own us all. Fight them we must as each successive regime manipulates that resource all the way back to Carnegie and Rockefeller.

[marble falls]

33. Seriously: If the US wanted to clear the Straights and the Gulf, the Navy with all the aircraft carrier groups in ...

... the area (did anyone know the Navy is the second largest airforce on the planet? USAF is number one) it could do it PDQ. The Navy's done it before and they can do it again. TACO hasn't ordered it for two reasons: he wants Europe on board and Europe just will not do that as it is an implicit endorsement of TACO's actions. And leaving in limbo keeps American oil exporters with big fucking grins. Heard of blood diamonds? This is blood petroleum.

[Melon]

16. This isn't the entire story. Supply chains have changed.

China has cut consumption to gas and refinery products.
Olefins production from oil to Naptha has changed over to CTO( Coal to Olefins ) and MTO( methanol to olefins).
The Chinese economy is bad and exports of chemicals have resumed.
China has oil reserves for 2026.
Every small country with oil has increased output.

In short…the world is ok near term. It’s why oil is falling. I expect downward economic pressure mid July ish as Chinese chemical production reaches EU and the US.

The question is how this has changed the global oil infrastructure even after this war. It has diminished the relative importance of Middle East oil.

[gab13by13]

20. Nice post,

Chinese reduction of demand is significant. OPEC should be worried in the future.

Don't forget the damage that Ukraine has done to Russian oil and gas facilities and ports, I have not seen anyone phase that into the equation.

Time is on Iran's side and Krasnov must understand that he can't bomb the shit out of Iran again, and Iran also knows that.

Iran doesn't want a peace deal, having civilian officials doing the negotiations is a tell, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is in charge of any agreements. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard isn't going to give up control of Hormuz, Krasnov made Iran relevant in the world.

[ToxMarz]

21. I wouldn't be surprised if Drumpf wasn't bribing and/or threating the players to keep the price artificially low

or face the full rath of the US powers in retribution.

[marble falls]

25. It's traders and speculators fiddling with the Commodities Market by disaster investing.

[kentuck]

26. They control the oil...

...the same way they control the stock markets...

Whatever is to their advantage. Manipulation and deal-making.

[LR3]

32. Did Trump admit to piracy today?

We know the orange idiot has to brag about everything, national secret or not...so when he said we had taken 22 ships, did he admit we are pirating ships and stealing their oil??

[marble falls]

34. Didn't TACO actually joke about being a pirate a few weeks ago?

[Jbraybarten]

37. He did some rigging in early 2020 when the pandemic started