Jasmine Crockett Holds Big Lead in Texas Primary (& Abbot spends millions to fight her).

[applegrove]

Last edited Wed Feb 25, 2026, 03:43 PM - Edit history (1)

Jasmine Crockett Holds Big Lead in Texas Primary

February 25, 2026 at 10:56 am EST By Taegan Goddard 263 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2026/02/25/jasmine-crockett-holds-big-lead-in-texas-primary/

A new University of Texas poll finds Jasmine Crockett (D) with a big lead James Talarico (D) in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, 56% to 44%.

On the Republican side, Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn running neck-and-neck, with neither candidate close to the 50%-plus-one-vote threshold needed to avoid a runoff.

Paxton led with 36% to Cornyn’s 34%. Rep. Wesley Hunt was in third, garnering 26% of the vote.

And:

Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas is spending millions of dollars on attack ads targeting Representative Jasmine Crockett, one of two Democratic candidates for Senate, and other prominent Democrats.

— The New York Times (@nytimes.com) 2026-02-25T20:40:06.032984Z

[Bread and Circuses]

1. GREAT

[Big Blue Marble]

6. As much as I love Jasmine, you do know that a lot of political observers think

James Talarico would have a better chance in the general in Texas which
has proven time after time to be a hard nut to crack.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

2. Interesting polling

I voted for Talarico but would be happy to support Crockett. The primary turnout numbers have been encouraging with far more democrats voting so far in the early vote. As of yesterday, the Democrats had far higher turnover than was normal in the primary.

Link to tweet

Total (change from yesterday):
🟦 DEM: 754,765 (+116,683)
🟥 GOP: 642,681 (+99,738)
——
Dems: 120.7% of 2022 total
Reps: 62.7% of 2022 total

The people showing up so far in the GOP primary are older

Link to tweet

Absolutely bonkers how ancient the early voting electorate is for the Texas Senate Republican primary.
41% are age 70 or older.
85% are age 50 or older.

[Skittles]

4. I don't like how late she got into the race

sucks

[LetMyPeopleVote]

12. Crockett was screwed by the GOP gerrymander

Her congressional district was destroyed by this gerrymander. The same thing was done to Al Green who is now in a primary for a different congressional district (CD 18). CD 18 used to be Sheila Jackson Lee's district and was vacant for almost a year when Sylvester Turned died. My oldest was in CD 18 but was moved to another district as a result of the gerrymander for the 2026 election cycle. Al Green is now in a tough primary against Christian Menefee who was just elected to replace Turner. I have heard that Menefee is ahead according to a poll, but Green has been around for a long time.

I personally like Al Green and spoke at an election event he hosted. Green introduced me to both Hillary Clinton and John Lewis as his attorney because I have worked on some voter protection efforts with him and other.

Texas politics are strange right now. I voted for Talarico but would be glad to support Crockett.

[Skittles]

16. Crockett getting fucked over by repukes

is not an excuse to fuck with Talarico.....of course I'll be voting for Crockett if she wins but I still think she should not have joined this race

[JustAnotherGen]

20. What race should she have run?

When should she run it?

Men have no problem throwing an elbow at a woman to get ahead. I've worked too long in Corporate America and yes - local and state politics as well to not know that is a FACT.

She saw an opportunity.
She took it.
It's the American way. All she is doing is giving the good old boys network a quick shove out of her way.

I applaud it.

[Rstrstx]

35. Governor or Lt Governor

She can’t stand Greg Abbott and I’d love to see her go toe to toe with him. They’re the ones that gerrymandered out her seat.

But yeah, getting into the Senate race at the very last moment was kind of a turnoff for me too. I like her but if she wins the Democratic primary it’s just going to be that much harder to win in November. Not impossible if Paxton is the nominee, but we’ll have to put up some massive new voter registration numbers, like bigger than Beto’s in 2018.

I’m not surprised that she is leading, I went to a local candidate meet and greet down here in S Texas last week and there were more people taking home Crockett yard signs than Talarico ones. Not by a huge margin but I was impressed with how many were getting snapped up. I think many Dems want a fighter right now and she’s about the biggest one in the state.

[Horse with no Name]

13. Anecdotally I have heard that republicans

Are crossing into the primary to boost Crockett because they are afraid of Talarico. I wouldn’t mind either of them but my guess is that shenanigans are afoot.

[Quiet Em]

15. I don't believe that.

They have their own battle going on between Paxton and Cornyn.

I don't know who will win the Democratic Primary, although Crockett is probably favored at this point, but whoever wins it will be due to Democratic voters, not Republicans.

[pinkstarburst]

22. I absolutely believe that

Look at the numbers. If they gave a sht about Cornyn vs Paxton, their numbers would be what ours are. Their numbers would be HIGHER since there are more republicans in the state! Our numbers are wiping their numbers out because they are crossing over to vote in our primary. They know perfectly well that if Talarico wins, we could flip that seat. If Jasmine wins, they've won. I'm literally sick looking at that data. We have no chance if she's the one who advances.

[Quiet Em]

24. I hope that after this primary finishes on March 3,

and if Crockett does win, as many are projecting, the attacks on her stop.

[pinkstarburst]

25. She is not going to win

and by entering the race at the last second against a strong candidate who genuinely could win, she has potentially ruined any chance Texas has at that seat. Crockett should have stuck to her House seat. If her argument was that she couldn't win her House seat because it got gerrymandered then she has zero business running for a statewide race in Texas because no way can she win in ruby red Texas where she will have to pick up conservative votes, if she can't even win in her own House district.

[Quiet Em]

32. Look, I think everyone can agree that Democrats picking up a Senate seat in Texas is a longshot.

There are other States that are much more likely and much more easier for Democrats to flip. But there is something happening there and it is showing up in the enthusiasm and early voting numbers in the primary. Longshot as it may be, I always stay cautiously optimistic and I believe there is a chance to take that seat with Crockett or Talarico as the candidate. Texas Democrats will decide which candidate they will be sending.

[pinkstarburst]

33. The numbers we are seeing have a lot of repub

crossover. No way do I believe that is all "democratic enthusiasm" because the dem numbers are so much higher than republican early vote numbers when there are more republicans in the state.

[Quiet Em]

34. There very well could be more unafilliated voters voting in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary

People who aren't consistent voters and people who are apolitical.

But Republican voters are fighting their own battle between Paxton and Cornyn.

Low turnout on the Republican side with this internal battle happening is a good sign for Democrats and does show that the enthusiasm is leaning towards the Democratic ticket.

[Nictuku]

3. I love the sound of Senator Crockett

I also think that congress needs people like Talrico. Perhaps he can run for the seat Crockett vacates. This guy can talk sense into some of these evangelical independents.

[pinkstarburst]

19. Sadly, she has zero chance in the general

And the republicans know it. This is why they are crossing over to vote for her in the democratic primary right now.

[JustAnotherGen]

21. Talarico

Can't reach the past 5-10 year of non-voters or Black voters. I also find it interesting the Latino voters showing up at her rallys.

The wins in 2026 are going to be energizing non-voters who see what a shit ass country we are.

[DFW]

5. The poll sampled 369 voters. Who were they? Texas has more than five million Democratic voters.

I would want to hear from many more of them before judging a poll to be accurate.

[Quiet Em]

7. In just six days we will know.

There was another poll a week or so ago. Very similar results. On March 3rd we will have difinitive results.

[DFW]

9. That we will.

I know I was denied the chance to cast my primary vote. I'm just one voter, but I doubt I was the only one.

[Quiet Em]

10. I saw that. I am so sorry.

I never miss a vote. I would be livid if that happened to me.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

17. I was also sorry to see that

The GOP is targeting overseas voters in the SAVE Act.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1009921

[SSJVegeta]

18. I am so sorry... did they even let you vote provisionally?

[DFW]

27. No. Just "you are too late"

So that was it.

[SSJVegeta]

28. Ugh. My condolences again.

There was a video I s a w a few days ago posted by a black woman who was also denied voting. After some persistence they ended up letting her cast a provisional ballot... they should at least let you do that.

[DFW]

30. I'm 5000 miles from Dallas. I don't have a lot of leverage as a Texas Democrat. n/t

[pinkstarburst]

26. That poll also was taken way before the Colbert show

[nature-lover]

8. This poll was before Cobert's interview with Talarico.

Cobert aired his interview with Talarico on Feb.16. This poll was taken from Feb 2-16.

[applegrove]

11. Thanks for that context.

[nature-lover]

14. Sure. Don't know how much difference it made, but makes the race more interesting.

Maybe more of my fellow Texans will vote!

[pinkstarburst]

23. This poll was of only 369 people

and took place before the Colbert interview.

Very small sample size.

[hamsterjill]

29. Nope. I don't believe this.

Republicans want Crockett to be the candidate because they feel they can beat her in the general. Everyone that I know has voted for Talarico.

I’ll support the winner of the primary, but we have a better chance with Talarico at this time.

Before my ass gets flamed. I’m a lifelong Texan and a lifelong Democrat, and Texas is a special case. If you don’t live down here, you don’t understand the politics.

[DFW]

31. Tip O'Neill knew whereof he spoke

He said "All politics is local." Truer words were never spoken. O'Neill was a Massachusetts Democrat who was Speaker of the House. In Texas, he would have been lucky to be elected city dog catcher in El Paso.

[hamsterjill]

36. Loved your post!

Thanks. Tip was right!!! I'm old enough to remember him.

I know there's been an awful lot of interest in Texas because there is such hope that it will turn. But I have been cracking up at certain posts (or posters!!!) who seem to want to take the subject matter into a specific direction. Look at their profiles, and guess what? Not anywhere near the action! Things definitely work in their own way around here. Many of us who have lived the cycles for several times start to see a pattern when one candidate is outperforming another. I'm seeing one now.

We are lucky to have both Crockett and Talarico representing Texas, but Talarico is the best choice for this moment in time. Republicans are scared shitless of him. They are not afraid of Crockett.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

37. Here are some other polls

It does not surprise me that this polling is not clear

Link to tweet

Polling of TX senate:

Emerson: Talarico +9
UT Texas: Crockett +12
Hobby: Crockett +8
Impact: Talarico +4
Slingshot: Crockett +1

(All polls pre-Colbert Talarico surge)

Polling is all over the place. This seems like an especially tough race to poll/model turnout. 🤷‍♂️