Reality check: will Donald Trump seek and serve an illegal third term as president?

[Fiendish Thingy]

Time for a periodic wellness check on the DU reality-based community.

(If you’re so inclined, please rec for visibility and maximum participation)

100 votes, 10 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Yes- Trump will be president for the rest of his life - after all, who will stop him?
	12 (12%)
	ARRGLE BARRGLE Merrick Garland AIEEE!
	2 (2%)
	No- I reject demoralizing defeatist nonsense and embrace this one absolute truth: Trump is not omnipotent, and the states and the people are not powerless.
	86 (86%)
	10 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[Torchlight]

1. My tea leaves are too rumpled to read beyond the next hour

[Johonny]

2. Im still rooting for the Big Mac . . .

[newdeal2]

3. If he were younger and in better health, YES

He is maximizing his limited time right now to collect all the wealth and treasures and power possible.

[Ocelot II]

4. Seek, maybe, because he does dumb, illegal and/or unconstitutional things all the time, but serve?

No way. Anyhow, if he's not actually dead, he'll be such a vegetable by then that even the GOP will have to notice.

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. Any "seeking" will strictly be for the grift

He won’t be the Republican nominee.

I don’t even expect him to formally declare his candidacy or attempt to remain in office.

He’ll just sell 2028 merch and seek donations to anoint his successor.

[Ocelot II]

7. Absolutely for the grift, and for the ego-trip of being able to anoint a successor.

There will, of course, be some form of compensation paid for that as well.

[crazylikafox]

21. Agree

[Septua]

56. I was looking for that reply...seek and serve are different animals.

Lawrence O'Donnell presented some Trump comments saying he's "read that he can't serve" a 3rd term. At this moment in time, I'm guessing he (or more likely Stephen Miller) is spitballing strategies for some way to "seek" a third term. He has so far illustrated nothing but contempt for the Constitution so the Constitution has no bearing on any decision he makes about running for a third term and there's nothing to stop him...at this moment in time.

If Dems regain control of Congress, the likelihood diminishes considerably because I also think a Dem House majority will impeach him early on. By then, the the GOP will be ready for him to go and a conviction would be a reasonable expectation.

O'Donnell also suggested the 3rd term run rhetoric is purely for distraction and that is certainly believable.

But we're talking about a guy who posts insane rants at 2A on his Spin Social about late night comedians, imposes tariffs on Canada because of a commercial he didn't like, wants the world to pay the U.S. for the privilege of doing business with U.S. companies, tells DOJ to go after people he deems criminals...for simply doing their jobs.

It's a new Trump world everyday...any prediction about any topic is just a guess.

[marmar]

5. I sincerely doubt he'll be around to seek one.

[Historic NY]

8. Grim reaper is going to come knocking

[IzzaNuDay]

39. That is what I am thinking!

He won’t admit he is in precarious health!

[tblue37]

51. His father lived into his 90s, even though he had Alzscheimer's, so I am not assuming he will die soon,

though I do keep my fingers crossed.

But no, he won't get a third term.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

9. I hope he is president for the rest of his life.

And I hope he serves something less than two terms.

[EdmondDantes_]

32. I think there's a good chance of this

Regardless of what they tell us, and in spite of the eyeball test alone not being a gauge of health, he's not known for healthy habits.

[BannonsLiver]

10. There should be an option for Canadian bacon.

[rampartd]

11. there will be no unconstitutional third term

this second term will last forever unless someone kills him.

[Ponietz]

52. As it is, Congress is dissolved. Repukes are fine with that.

[RainCaster]

12. The GOP will present him as "Dear Leader" until his death becomes public

TSF is already proven to be senile and yet the Republicans continue to worship him, insisting that he is "superlative". So we are all insensed about the East Wing being turn down (with no regard for asbestos). Meanwhile, the billionaires he put in charge are tearing apart the economy to suit their needs.

[CanonRay]

13. He'll be dead.

[GusBob]

14. Seek? Yes, he may well be already. Serve? No, thank God

should be 2 separate poll points

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. By "seek", I mean formally declare and file his candidacy and seek the GOP 2028 nomination. Nt

[chouchou]

15. I believe the puppet masters will cause him to either be shut down or will die.

"Yeah...we got him to be President but looks like he's starting to fuck up the economy way too much"

[Fiendish Thingy]

18. Yup- Trump is merely a temporary means to an end.

He is a tool that will be discarded at the end of this term.

[Whiskeytide]

36. I disagree. A fucked economy for the masses usually means ...

… great benefit for the wealthy. Covid was a great example of that. They won’t kick him to the curb for that.

[Chemical Bill]

16. No, he won't live that long. n/t

[EarthFirst]

19. 100% this... nt

[Cirsium]

20. Talk about a push poll

"Demoralizing defeatist nonsense" to suspect that Trump will do everything and anything he can to stay in power?

Suspecting that Trump will do everything and anything he can to stay in power means that a person therefore thinks Trump is omnipotent, and the states and the people are powerless?

We are in a very serious emergency situation and Trump and the Republicans (and the billionaires for whom they shill) are extremely dangerous and capable of just about anything. Acknowledging that is not "demoralizing defeatist nonsense."

[Kaleva]

22. The poll asks if Trump will serve a 3rd term

Which is different then asking if he’ll do everything he can to remain in power.

[Fiendish Thingy]

26. Actually the "Yes" option states Trump will remain in office for the rest of his life

I think that covers the other scenarios you contemplate.

[BannonsLiver]

24. +1

It’s shtick at this point from someone who is a citizen of another country with nothing tangible at stake if they’re wrong.

[Fiendish Thingy]

25. Acknowledging the lawlessness and daily atrocities isn't defeatism

But declaring, with certainty , and without evidence or even a logical thought process around the actual logistical steps required to accomplish such a scheme, that Trump will successfully seek and serve a third term is absolutely, positively defeatist nonsense.

PS- it is indeed a “push” poll in the sense that I wanted to push people to take a stand and accept or reject the rampant Third Term Trutherism infecting DU lately.

So far, it looks like the state of the reality based community here at DU is just fine.

[Cirsium]

34. OK

Yes, with that limitation, who could disagree?

Declaring, with certainty that Trump will successfully seek and serve a third term is unsupportable.

Kind of a leap from that to "rampant Third Term Trutherism" don't you think?

I haven't seen "the rampant Third Term Trutherism infecting DU lately." Without revealing another member's identity, can you give me some examples of comments along those lines that you have seen?

[Fiendish Thingy]

35. There have been numerous threads on the topic over the past week.

I suppose if you searched DU using “third term” you’d get plenty of results.

Those threads contain lots of evidence-free speculation, with many nodding along unquestioningly.

It’s usually something along the lines of this:

“Trump won’t leave when his term ends”

“SCOTUS will back him up”

“He will declare an emergency and cancel the election”

All supported by simplistic “evidence” such as “the laws don’t apply to him”.

Never even once have I seen anyone explain the step by step process for how these scenarios would unfold, and they also ignore any potential responses by the courts, congress, the military or the people.

The general assertion is that A third term will “just happen” because Trump wills it to be so, and nobody will raise a finger to object, resist or otherwise intervene.

The fact remains that, despite this administration’s lawlessness and corruption, they have only defied a court order once, and restrained their conduct following losses, injunctions etc. from various courts numerous times.

I don’t suggest there is any honor or deference in this administration, but something is limiting their conduct when these rulings are issued.

[Cirsium]

37. All are possible

Thanks.

All of these are possibilities in my opinion:

“Trump won’t leave when his term ends”

“SCOTUS will back him up”

“He will declare an emergency and cancel the election”

[Fiendish Thingy]

38. None of those are possible IMO

Regardless of his disregard for the laws of the nation, Trump must obey the laws of physics, which will do when the new Commander in Chief orders him to be physically removed from the White House (unless you think thousands in the military will commit treason and enable a coup).

SCOTUS will never rule that 2=3, for that would permanently and irreversibly extinguish their power, authority and relevancy. Their loyalty is to their ideology, not to Trump the man.

States run elections- they weren’t canceled during the civil war, or any war, and they won’t be canceled in 2028- Trump doesn’t have the power.

Remember this one absolute truth:

Trump is not omnipotent, and the states and the people are not powerless

We have seen that truth proven repeatedly, despite the daily atrocities committed by this administration.

[Cirsium]

45. Very good

Thanks for that. We see it differently.

[Tommy Carcetti]

23. I believe he will try.

Whether he succeeds or not is anyone’s guess.

Unless he croaks first. Which could also happen.

[ificandream]

27. Johnson gave the game away --- Trump is trolling us.

I think the media should stop asking him about it. That's not to say they can't follow the story and report on it if something occurs in that vein. But he doesn't need to be asked about it. It's more of his usual con game.

[Mike Nelson]

28. Depends...

... on his health. We know he's unwell... not in the shape he claims. And, his mental health hasn't been good for ages. BUT if he's about like he is now, as in able to speak his regular gibberish and get around for the most part, he will try to remain President.

[Fiendish Thingy]

29. Walk me through the steps of just how he will "try" to stay in office.

As you describe the steps Trump will take, make sure to include the potential responses from the courts, the congress, the military and the people.

Reminder:

There are no troops on the streets of Portland or Chicago.

Kilmar Garcia is back on US soil.

What stopped Trump? Why didn’t he jail or assassinate the judges who opposed him, like his BFF Putin does?

[Mike Nelson]

30. Stay in office?

... I don't think that's as likely. He could try to declare war and suspend elections. He could claim they were not valid and call for the Presidential election to be recalled/rescheduled. Remain as President for another term... his first thought would be to run as the 2nd term of the 47th President. I do think the US Constitution is clear - but I don't trust the present Supreme Court. I believe we've seen wives succeed term-limited or dead spouses. Probably Nancy Reagan could have done the job, but she was very unpopular. Despite his health, Reagan could have done well in a third run. Of course Hillary Clinton could have won a 3rd Clinton term, but that would mean running against Gore. Obama could nave done well, also, but I don't think Michelle Obama is interested. Melaina is not eligible, but the kids are- or another "stand-in" could run. Then, there is the succession and appointment process... he could run as Speaker of the House, or be appointed into office like Gerald Ford. I don't think laws are a barrier for Crooked Donald, if he wants to remain President. He's already proven that to be true.

[Mike Nelson]

31. By wives taking over...

... I mean in lower offices. I think we've seen that in lower offices. Wives running after their spouses are term-limited or die. They have been successful, I think. It has not happened at the Presidential level. With women becoming more political active, it's probably going to happen... two terms for someone, and two terms for their spouse. The Third Lady is not a candidate, of course, so another family member would have to try.

[Fiendish Thingy]

33. None of that is grounded in reality, law or logic.

You failed to discuss the potential responses from the courts (who, with one exception, he has not defied), the congress, the military and the people.

You seem to have forgotten that elections have been held during every war, including the Civil War, as well as in the aftermath of 9/11.

Imagining something and typing it on the internet doesn’t make that thing plausible, possible or probable.

We agree that the constitution is clear, and even the current corrupt MAGA majority on SCOTUS would not permanently extinguish their power and their relevance by ruling that 2=3.

Their loyalty is to their ideology, not to Trump the man. He was a means to an end, and will be discarded at the end of this term.

[KentuckyWoman]

40. If he's alive, he tries.

If he's in any shape to stand upright and slobber out something marginally like words .... a big if... I would not be at all surprised if they try to run him as VP. Intent being potus steps down or falls out a window and he is back in.

But Jean Carroll has taught us he can be beaten.

[Fiendish Thingy]

43. He's already said he won't run as VP

And that’s not a legal option anyway, just a Republican fantasy.

[KentuckyWoman]

47. Legality seems to be open for debate.

https://cornerstonelaw.us/22nd-amendment-doesnt-say-think-says/

I have read the logic of this in several places ... this just happens to be one of them. I think this is where the MAGA are hatching that fantasy from. Ultimately the Supremes would decide and my faith there has been lost.

Win, lose or draw. Legal or not... I still believe he tries no matter what he's said in the past.

And yes, I'd love to be wrong.

[Fiendish Thingy]

48. Two means two, not three

SCOTUS is loyal to their ideology, not to Trump the man.

If they were to rule that 2=3, they would be permanently subjugating themselves to Trump and his successors, extinguishing their independent power and authority.

[JoseBalow]

41. Will drumpf voluntarily walk away from campaign fundraising / free money?

No, he will not.

[Fiendish Thingy]

44. He doesn't have to run to grift like he's running. Nt

[JoseBalow]

46. But if he's not "running," that campaign money goes to someone else

Unacceptable!

[Conjuay]

42. "President for the rest of HIS life"

Can mean different things to different people.

[struggle4progress]

49. La complainte du partisan

[Blasphemer]

50. His son is going to run. nt

[Jack Valentino]

60. He better run (and not for president)....

[Blues Heron]

53. If a leading an insurrection is fine with the Roberts court then a third term is nothing.

What’s to stop them from ruling that it violates his god given right to run and that it should be “up to the voters”

You underestimate the predicament we are in by an order of magnitude.

[Fiendish Thingy]

54. So you think SCOTUS will rule that a part of the constitution is unconstitutional?

That’s just silly.

[Blues Heron]

55. It's exactly what they already did- Colorado ruled he was ineligible and they forced him back on the ballot

It’s literally why he’s president right now, they nullified the constitution. We are in a coup bro, all bets are off.

[Fiendish Thingy]

61. You are wrong

The Colorado case (a unanimous bipartisan ruling) was about the jurisdiction of a state court to disqualify a candidate for federal office, not whether the candidate should be disqualified or not.

The case was never brought in federal court, so we will never know how the court might have ruled on the question of disqualification under the 14th amendment.

[Blues Heron]

63. States are in charge of the elections right? The scotus just made some shit up to force him back on.

Nice try bro, I do admire you quaint but misplaced faith in our institutions. Probably easier to wear rose tinted glasses from afar. Come down to Chicago and see for yourself, these fucking thugs mean business and they are not about to let a relatively recent amendment stop them. the scotus could say that’s not the framers intent and that would be it.

[Fiendish Thingy]

64. The Colorado ruling was a unanimous, bipartisan decision

Are you saying liberals on the court wanted to “force Trump back on the ballot”?

The truth is, if states were allowed to disqualify for federal office, then the interpretation of the 14th would be up to 50 individual courts, (which I believe was mentioned in KBJ’s concurrence).

That would have resulted in Biden/Harris being excluded from the ballot in numerous red states.

If SCOTUS ever ruled that 2=3, and that a constitutional amendment itself was unconstitutional, they would instantly be permanently subjugated to Trump, and lose all independent power and authority.

As I said, their loyalty is to their ideology, not to Trump the man.

In the unlikely event they do rule that 2=3 (and nobody has asked them that question as of yet), feel free to create a thread calling me out to proclaim “I told you so!”

[Blues Heron]

65. I admire your faith bro.

[Fiendish Thingy]

66. No faith required

When you’re a member of the reality-based community, bro.

[sakabatou]

57. Seek? Possibly. Actually win? Only if the game is rigged from the start.

[J_William_Ryan]

58. "States run elections"

True.

And many on the right will make the argument that the 22nd Amendment applies to only to consecutive terms – some red states may put Trump on their ballots in 2028.

Then the courts will get involved as we saw with Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

Trump and his Cult members will certainly continue to talk about a third term to grift and to deflect from Trump’s crimes, corruption, and many failures.

[Fiendish Thingy]

62. SCOTUS never ruled on Trump's disqualification under the 14th amendment

They only ruled the a state court could not disqualify a candidate for federal office.

Why the case was not then taken to federal court, I don’t know.

[Midwestern Democrat]

67. The only way Trump was ever going to be disqualified under the 14th Amendment was if the Justice Department put him

on trial for insurrection and secured a conviction - nobody was ever going to disqualified from public office on the grounds of being guilty of insurrection without the due process of a criminal trial.

[Fiendish Thingy]

68. You are correct

Which is why, regardless of who was AG under Biden, the Roberts court would have made sure the result was exactly the same - no Trump trial before the election.

[Jack Valentino]

59. He might well "seek it", but I don't believe he will survive until November 2028 anyway....