Iran could have a bomb within the next 3 weeks

[Arazi]

According to nuclear scientists and IAEA experts.
If Traitor had left the JCPOA in place there’d be no enriched uranium at this point. Now they’re going to build a bomb. Bank on it

A single cascade of 174 IR-6 centrifuges could produce a bomb's worth of 90% highly enriched uranium from the 60% enriched material whose location is unknown in 10-20 days.

Iran doesn't need to rebuild enrichment facilities on their previous scale to get the bomb.

— James Acton (@nuclear-jim.bsky.social) 2025-06-25T20:13:49.060Z

[doc03]

1. They have no way of delivering it nt

[Arazi]

4. If I had to guess China or Russia will help with that part

[Lancero]

11. Iran doesn't have any aircraft with enough lift capacity to carry a bomb?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enola_Gay

Long range missiles are the preferred way mount atomic weapons these days, but they're not the only way.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

17. No

Most of Irans aircraft are old. And they don't have any bombers. Most nations don't have bombers anymore. I think only the US, Russia, and China have dedicated strategic bombers now. It makes sense, modern air defenses make approaching and entering enemy airspace risky. The only bombers that are still going to drop a gravity nuke is a stealth one. And even those will probably just fire a standoff one weapon like a cruise missile unless you have total air supremacy or a bunch of ewar aircraft blinding everything.

[Lancero]

22. Keywords, dedicated strategic bomber. If Iran gets desperate enough, they can slap it on a lot of stuff.

Given that most of the nations they take issue with are rather close to their border, they don't really need to go all in on a long-range delivery vehicle.

If they have a jet in their inventory, they have a delivery vehicle. Not a very good one perhaps, but still good enough to scare any of their regional enemies.

The idea that a nuclear weapon should only be considered a threat if it's equipped to a high-tech stealth bomber is pure techno-fetishism.

[Arazi]

24. Yeah, I'm wondering why folks are fixated on this having to be on a plane or missile

[Lancero]

28. Funniest thing is that we did a study back in the 90's on the possibility of slapping nukes on Drones...

Back in the days when the MQ-1 Predator was top of the line.

https://media.defense.gov/2017/Dec/29/2001862132/-1/-1/0/T_RENEHAN_UNMANNED_AERIAL_VEHICLES.PDF

What was the other thing that Iran spent years and millions of dollars developing again? Oh yeah... Their drone program.

[ThoughtCriminal]

38. Shipping container, box truck, freighter or tanker ship

Lots of low tech ways to deliver a bomb.

[carpetbagger]

27. I read a haunting USAF report once

It was in some war college book. Iran or terrorists detonate a nuclear bomb inside Iran to blame America and Israel.

[Iggo]

30. Didn't totally not a war criminal Colin Powell say they could deliver it via taco truck?

[Jack Valentino]

32. They still have a lot of missiles of various sizes....

Seems like one of those might be used to deliver a smaller tactical nuke---
but not within 3 weeks time... they'd still have to build the actual bomb,
and adapt one of their delivery vehicles for it...

[stillcool]

2. oh my. how many times am

I supposed to fall for this? Isn't there an expiration date?

[H2O Man]

5. We can't wait

for a mushroom cloud. Condi, Scooter, and Dick tried to warn us!

[stillcool]

14. and they couldn't sell it either

not that it mattered. What a difference between then and now, and yet here we are replacing the Q with an N.

[Arazi]

8. lol too true

Unfortunately I think the gauntlet has been thrown (by us) and they’re not going to waste time waffling between different internal factions anymore.

Going to guess they’re all united on getting it done now

[stillcool]

16. like Scooter said to Judith Miller

they turn in clusters because their roots connect them.

[choie]

3. Gabbard trying to get back on trump's good side.

[Silent Type]

6. If true, will trump use that as an excuse for another bombing run?

[doc03]

12. Of course he will he always telegraphs his intentions.

[-misanthroptimist]

7. Will Amazon deliver an A-bomb?

Because otherwise I call bullshit.

[doc03]

21. Maybe Door Dash.

[doc03]

9. If someone gave them one and way to deliver it what would they do? Bomb Isreal and be totally destroyed

in a matter of minutes? Same goes for North Korea, Russia, India, Pakistan, France, England whoever,
it is a useless weapon other than an insurance policy. In my opinion the two most likely countries to use
one is the USA and Israel just because of our current insane leadership.

[Arazi]

25. Again, many countries can want it for deterrence, not aggression

We just bombed the shit out of Iran.

We would not have bombed the shit out of them if they had a nuclear weapon.

Ergo, many countries will now see possession of a nuclear weapon or two as a critical defense deterrent. Many in the IR world now believe Iran has learned that lesson and will put aside internal differences and work to weaponize their uranium immediately instead of using their hidden program as a “Will they won’t they” negotiating tactic.

[AloeVera]

29. So which is it that you think Iran would want it for?

Deterrence or suicide?

[Arazi]

31. Obviously the world believes they want it for aggression (suicide)

I’m not any kind of expert on this so I won’t pretend to know.

The only thing I do know is they’re a Shia majority country surrounded by Sunni regimes that hate them. Every IR expert posits Iran believes they “need” deterrence for historical reasons (and yes, more recently in Persia’s many century long existence - Israel/Jew hatred).

We just nicely showed Iran that they need deterrence from the villainous West too. Whatever forces constrained Iran from going 60-90% enrichment and putting it on a delivery system are now gone.

Iran may superficially agree to negotiations with Traitor and the US but most experts believe Iran doesn’t trust or believe anything we say anymore and will persist in attaining a weapon asap even as they straight up lie to our (and the IAEA) faces. We have no idea where any part of their nuclear program/enriched uranium exists anymore.

Enter James Acton and the OP on the JCPOA…

[Jack Valentino]

33. "We just nicely showed Iran that they need deterrence from the villainous West too"---

As if the Iraq war didn't prove it---- and Iran was target #2
on the Neocon's "regime change" list....

[Arazi]

35. Yup. Whatever forces in Iran who were still trying to wrangle negotiations

And stringing along the west as they moved along on their nukes program have now been converted into hardliners.

Who knows, Israel probably bombed and killed the moderate/work-with-the-West guys. I don’t know enough about the internal dynamics of Iranian politics to know whose still alive anymore

[Melon]

43. Iran blinded 130 woman in 2024 for protesting. In 2023 one of their budget proposals presented within their assembly

was to kidnap Americans for ransom.

It’s a radical government that pledges death to America. And your idea is to placate them so they are less hostile? They don’t do things to kill America because they can’t. Same with Israel. Our military is what keeps them in check. They’d invade Israel tomorrow if they had a chance in hell. Until they get a regime change, they need to be held to as low of technological level as possible.

[Blue Full Moon]

10. Russia said it would give them weapons.

[Jack Valentino]

34. "A Russian" said that other countries would give them weapons---

A Russian who no longer holds any office in Russia,
and reportedly spouts off a lot like a loose cannon...

However, Pakistan has claimed sympathy for Iran,
and they DO have the bomb...

[OC375]

13. Odd

Thought they had no desire for nukes? You'd figure they'd be 3 weeks away from boundless nuclear power, with how long this research has been going on. If they're 3 weeks from The Bomb, there is apparently more work to be done neutering them.

[hlthe2b]

15. That is to enrich to 90%--NOT TO MAKE A BOMB. Please folks pay attention to facts. Details matter.

Estimates are at LEAST a year (and likely more to actually construct even a NK-style crude early bomb.

The point that TSF was an utter idiot to have torn up the Obama agreement is valid as we would not be looking at that short time span to go from 60-90% enriched Uranium but rather would have been in the single digits. But, there is no way that in 120 days Iran will not only enrich to 90% but also build the completed bomb.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

18. Miniturization will probably take longer then that

Anyone with enough fissile material can make a gun type. A miniturized implosion one, thats considerably more difficult.

[Jirel]

19. Horse crap.

If they’d had the capability they would’ve already done it. You can bank on that.

Israel has assassinated top scientists and engineers. They may have saved the uranium but likely not the equipment needed to complete a usable weapon. They are having to make do with secondary work site(s) they can not draw attention to.

Even if they could produce a core in weeks, they’d still have to deliver it. The likelihood of that is also small.

This is right-wing fear-mongering.

Also, we should be no more concerned about Iran having a nuke at some future date, than we should be now about Bibi Netanyahu having nukes.

[Arazi]

20. Just to be clear, Jim Acton isn't fear mongering

I believe he’s simply pointing out that Iran is now fully motivated to put aside partisan internal fighting over weaponizing their uranium and most likely will do so post-haste. His larger point about the JCPOA stands.

And tbh, Iran - whether it’s ruled by the Islamic Republic or becomes a full fledged democracy - remains a hated Shia majority country surrounded by Sunnis. Perhaps they lose their murderous hatred for Israel but other ancient grievances remain that may compel them to obtain a nuclear device for deterrence, large or small, regardless.

[iemanja]

23. After the bombings?

That makes zero sense. We've heard nothing but how Iran is away from a nuke for two decades now. I believe it as much as I believe the WMD in Iraq. Hasn't this war been destructive enough already?

Also, a tweet that provides no evidence and says only "Iran could have a nuclear bomb" is far from persuasive. It's irresponsible to try to pass that off as evidence, when it obviously isn't.

[unblock]

26. We know where they are. They're in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat.

[Celerity]

36. pull the other one, it's got bells on

[doc03]

37. What ever happened to those alleged suitcase

nukes being passed around about 10-20 years ago

[area51]

39. Face it, Gabbard,

#DementiaDonnie's just not into you anymore.

[Melon]

40. We can't be going from their was no threat to bomb in 3 weeks?

If this is true, that they can have a bomb in 3 weeks, then Israel and the US were 200% justified in bombing Iran. This is crazy and is counter to yesterdays message.

[Arazi]

41. The message is don't believe Traitor and his propaganda

[Melon]

42. That's not the message from everyone discussing

Above nor the OP message.