An Algorithm Deemed This Nearly Blind 70-Year-Old Prisoner a "Moderate Risk." Now He's No Longer Eligible for Parole.

[Nevilledog]

https://www.propublica.org/article/tiger-algorithm-louisiana-parole-calvin-alexander

Calvin Alexander thought he had done everything the Louisiana parole board asked of him to earn an early release from prison.

He had taken anger management classes, learned a trade and enrolled in drug treatment. And as his September hearing before the board approached, his disciplinary record was clean.

Alexander, more than midway through a 20-year prison sentence on drug charges, was making preparations for what he hoped would be his new life. His daughter, with whom he had only recently become acquainted, had even made up a room for him in her New Orleans home.

Then, two months before the hearing date, prison officials sent Alexander a letter informing him he was no longer eligible for parole.

A computerized scoring system adopted by the state Department of Public Safety and Corrections had deemed the nearly blind 70-year-old, who uses a wheelchair, a moderate risk of reoffending, should he be released. And under a new law, that meant he and thousands of other prisoners with moderate or high risk ratings cannot plead their cases before the board. According to the department of corrections, about 13,000 people — nearly half the state’s prison population — have such risk ratings, although not all of them are eligible for parole.

*snip*

[Mosby]

1. Its a misuse of data analysis.

Here's the key paragraph:

While algorithms like TIGER can predict on a group level that 40 out of 100 people will reoffend upon their release, they can’t pinpoint exactly who those 40 people will be, according to experts.

So in social science speak, it's predictive at the nomothetic level, but not at the idiographic level, hence is worthless for parole decisions.

[Solly Mack]

2. Damn.