Does the PRC want to annex Taiwan?

[Frasier Balzov]

If so, is there a better time than right now to make that move?

Would it risk harming relations with the United States any more severely than the harm which Trump is already causing?

The outrage of the world would be muted by the humiliation suffered by Trump for his hubris, sending him reeling and scrambling to save face.

I understand that Taiwan is not Hong Kong, and that the people of Taiwan have everything to say about this. They can rightfully be expected to resist invasion and annexation.

But come on. Look at a map of where Taiwan sits. Look at how vulnerable Trump is to having his global bluffs being called.

What set of circumstances could be more ripe for this being the PRC's moment to achieve the unification it has sought for decades?

[EYESORE 9001]

1. PRC better bring a sack lunch

It’s hardly as vulnerable as it looks on a map.

[Swede]

2. Taiwan has mentioned blowing up the 3 Gorges Dam if they are attacked.

This threatens 400 million Chinese living down river.

[mr715]

6. Seriously?

That seriously complicates the situation. Does Taiwan have the capacity?


M

[Swede]

9. Unknown.

And they ain't telling.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

3. Yes they do

And no, this is not likely a great time for them to do it. An invasion of the magnitude required to gain control of Taiwan and simultaneously fight outside powers who would intervene takes years to prepare for. A very large military buildup would be needed. Best case scenario for China is to invade and hammer Taiwan as hard as possible in order to gain control quickly. The longer the war lasts, the less likely it is for China to succeed as they are not in great position for a protracted war.

[marble falls]

4. When have they never????

[Shipwack]

5. It's a better time than usual, but timing isn't everything.

While Trump is unlikely to care about an invasion, or give aid to Taiwan, there are other factors to consider.

1) Attacking a dug in enemy is tough. Attacking a dug in enemy across a body of water is even tougher.

2) China would have to send a large naval forces (which they don't have yet) to carry the ground troops. They have never fought a modern naval battle. Their designs could be flawed, and their crews have no experience (even from records of past conflicts). It's not a unknown for an unseasoned crew to do well in a battle, but it's not the way to bet.

3) Collateral damage. Any attack on Taiwan is going to damage not just infrastructure (expensive to rebuild) but also the chip and electronic factories. These are what makes Taiwan valuable.

I'll admit that a counter-argument is that it is also a political prize, so occupying a small piece of annoying land might be more important than its manufacturing. I honestly don't know. I personally think that the Chinese government is patient and plays the (very) long game. They might think that they'll be able to acquire Taiwan without firing a shot sixty years from now.

A Chinese invasion has been excessively studied and wargamed. The most frequent result was that China would win, even if the US had a couple of carriers in the region. However, it would be a very costly battle for both sides, with both forces decimated.

I think they'll wait. There's a more than decent chance that a future generation of Taiwanese will request to join mainland China. Memories fade...

[Frasier Balzov]

7. Splendid analysis clarifying the costs vs. benefits.

Short-sighted of me to leap from a trade war to a shooting war.

The United States has already armed the Taiwanese people very well.

PRC must gauge and would be gambling upon the will and skill of the ROC to use what they have been given.

[Shipwack]

8. Thank you for the compliment b

If my analysis is good it's only because I draw from reports from people more informed than I.

I have a casual interest in naval power from my time in the USN. I have several blind spots I know nothing about.

Don't be too hard on yourself. These are crazy random times, and it's easy to get worried about things.