General Discussion
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Per NHC, the disturbance in the SW Gulf of Mexico has been labeled 92L and is likely to develop into a named storm.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
1. Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually
becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or
on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move
faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could
occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over
much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
(snip)
((Worried weather weenies are all over this. One set of preliminary models indicates it may hit FL south of a Tampa- Cape Canaveral line Wednesday or Thursday)
https://flhurricane.com/clarkmodelanimator.php?year=2024&storm=14
((A NWS Tampa Bay discussion citing preliminary rain and main event expectations)
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
346 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
For today we will see some drier air filter through the middle part
of the state with PW dropping to around 1.5. This will result in
little to no showers activity along West Central Florida. However
this dry air does not reach the Nature Coast or Southwest Florida
where we can still expect to see scattered showers and storms mainly
in the late afternoon and evening hours. Moisture content will
increase across the whole state on Sunday which will produce cloudy
skies and scattered showers for the afternoon and evening hours.
This axis of moisture that will drift over the area on Sunday will
remain for much of our work week. Models are coming into better
agreement on a potential tropical system forming on this boundary
during the work week. However, I want to emphasize that no one
should be focused on one deterministic run of any model as we
have seen very high variable on timing, strength, and if a
tropical system will even develop. For right now what we are
confident on is a prolonged heavy rainfall event that will last
from our Sunday through early on Thursday with widespread rainfall
amounts over 5 inches.
(snip)
Quakerfriend
(5,563 posts)malaise
(276,115 posts)Was about to post that.
Quakerfriend
(5,563 posts)- So glad nothing is headed your way at present 🤞!
malaise
(276,115 posts)Pay attention people
ProudMNDemocrat
(18,580 posts)He charges his members a small fortune to belong there, as well as charges for parties, etc. Where's that money going to? Improvements and such?
malaise
(276,115 posts)No doubt
nitpicked
(578 posts)At this moment, about 1/3 of models keep this as a TS, while the rest peak anywhere from Cat 1 to near Cat 3.
Of course, there will be better guesses by Tuesday.
babylonsister
(171,463 posts)about weather in Florida.
nitpicked
(578 posts)I have relatives in that state.
Some weather board participants are talking about hitting the gas stations and stores today.